One of the biggest non-majors of the year will take place this week at TPC Scottsdale. The 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open is in town, once again the same week as the Super Bowl in Phoenix. The fun begins on Thursday and will conclude on Sunday at the Stadium Course.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
This is the 2nd elevated event of the 2023 season so the stars will be out in Phoenix for the Greatest Show on Grass. Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are both in the field, along with top players such as Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau. Scheffler won here last year, so he’ll be trying to defend his title.
The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale always makes for a fun finish, particularly in the final 4 holes. There are only 3 par-5s but they’re all reachable for the long hitters, while 17th is a driveable par 4 that’s sure to create some fireworks. It’s a course that requires quality ball-striking, so targeting players who excel tee to green is wise.
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Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:03 p.m. ET.
Xander Schauffele (+270)
Schauffele finished 2nd and 3rd in his last 2 starts at TPC Scottsdale, so he’ll be trying to continue his streak of top-5s here. He also has another top 10 and 2 other top-20 finishes in this tournament, putting together 1 of the best track records at the WM Phoenix Open.
Tony Finau (+425)
Finau either misses the cut or finishes near the top of the leaderboard in this event. No in-between. Unfortunately, he’s missed the cut in 5 of his 7 tries, but he came in 2nd in 2020 and has another top 25 here, too. He has 3 top-10s in 5 starts this season, including 1 win.
Rory McIlroy (+180)
McIlroy, along with Rahm, is 1 of the hottest players on the planet right now. He won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic in his last start, as well as the CJ Cup in October, which was his most recent PGA Tour event. I expect him to continue playing well this week; his only start here ended with a T-13 in 2021.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Patrick Cantlay (+400)
- Scottie Scheffler (+270)
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Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top-10 picks
Jon Rahm (-110)
Rahm at almost even money for a top-10 in the state where he played his college golf feels like a good value. He’s notched top-10s in all 4 of his starts this season, winning twice in January already.
Scottie Scheffler (+140)
The defending champion has 2 top-10s in 3 starts at this event and has cracked the top 10 in 3 of his 5 starts this season. He’s a perfect fit for TPC Scottsdale, ranking 10th on tour in strokes gained: tee to green.
Cameron Young (+270)
Young’s putter has failed him recently, but the playing field will be leveled a bit at Scottsdale. It’s much more important to drive the ball well and hit greens, which Young excels at. He tied for 26th in his debut last year.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Sahith Theegala (+450)
- Viktor Hovland (+330)
- Rory McIlroy (-105)
Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top-20 picks
Sahith Theegala (+190)
Theegala burst onto the scene with a T-3 finish here last year, nearly claiming his 1st PGA Tour win as a rookie. This season, he’s already added 3 top-5 finishes to his resume. Even with a star-studded field, he should be able to crack the top 20.
Rickie Fowler (+220)
Ignore the fact that Fowler has missed the cut here the last 2 years. He was struggling during that time. From 2016-20, he had 1 win and 4 total top-20s in this tournament. He loves this place and should play well this week.
J.T. Poston (+320)
Poston has posted 4 top-40 finishes in his 4 starts in this event, with 1 of those coming in the top 15 and 3 in the top 30. He’s also come in the top 21 in each of his last 4 starts this season. Ride the hot hand.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Tom Kim (+140)
- Patrick Cantlay (-110)
- Tony Finau (-110)
Waste Management Phoenix Open – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Viktor Hovland (-110) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (-110)
There aren’t a lot of matchups to love this week, but I’m going to give Hovland a shot against Fitzpatrick. Hovland played well at Pebble Beach and finished T-13 following a 1-under final round. Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, missed the cut by a few shots at 2-over through 2 rounds.
Xander Schauffele (+100) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-120)
This bet is really about value with Schauffele sitting at +100. He doesn’t have a win here like Scheffler, but his history at TPC Scottsdale is well-documented and noted above. Take the stud at even money.
Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top GB + Ireland
Rory McIlroy (+115)
There aren’t many spots you can get McIlroy at plus money, but this is 1 of them. You can fade Fitzpatrick (+330), Tyrell Hatton (+750) and Seamus Power (+900) by taking McIlroy at +115, which I think is a good value for 1 of the 2 hottest players in the world.
Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top Continental Europe
Jon Rahm (-120)
It might seem crazy to take Rahm at -120 against Hovland (+330), but Hovland is really the only legitimate competition in this bet. Rahm has played well here in the past and is hitting the ball as well as anyone right now.
Waste Management Phoenix Open – 1st-round leader
Jon Rahm (+1500)
Rahm ranks 6th in 1st-round scoring this season and always plays well here, never finishing worse than T-16. If he keeps playing the way he has been, he’ll be near the top of the first-round leaderboard.
Sahith Theegala (+5000)
Theegala shot 64 here in the 2nd round last year, which followed his opening 67. He faded on the weekend, but this is a course he could go really low on.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group C winner: Viktor Hovland (+380)
Tom Kim (+300), Cameron Young (+320), Hideki Matsuyama (+350) and Fitzpatrick (+350) are the other players in this group, meaning Hovland has the worst odds of them all. He’s the only 1 who played last week and made the cut, and his driver should be a weapon at Scottsdale.
Will there be a playoff? Yes: (+330)
There was a playoff here in 2 of the last 3 years. Now the field is as loaded as ever. There could be some really low scores but I don’t think 1 player will run away with it.
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Golfweek:
- Forget 16. The 17th hole at the WM Phoenix Open is where the tournament is won and lost
- PXG Xtreme golf balls
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