Royal Liverpool in Hoylake will play host to the year’s 4th and final major this week. The Open Championship is set to begin on Thursday morning from England as players try to win the coveted Claret Jug.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among The Open Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler comes into The Open as the top-ranked golfer in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, followed by Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay. Last year’s champion, Cameron Smith, is ranked 33rd entering the 151st Open Championship.
Royal Liverpool is hosting The Open for the 15th time, with the last coming in 2014 when McIlroy won by 2 shots over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia. It’s a par 71 and 7,313 yards, but it will play considerably longer when the wind is blowing into the players’ faces. The 10th hole has also been changed to a par 4 instead of a par 5, while the stretch from 15-17 has also been altered because of the creation of the par-3 17th hole – a diabolical short par 3 with bunkers all around and a green that runs off to every side.
2023 The Open Championship
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The Open Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Jordan Spieth (+600)
Spieth missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week, which wasn’t the way he wanted to start his 2-week stretch in the UK. However, he’s a master on links courses, in part because of the creativity required to win on them. In his last 5 Open Championship starts, he’s finished outside the top 9 once, and that was a T-20 in 2019. He’s never missed the cut and has 3 top-5s, including a win in this championship.
Brooks Koepka (+400)
Koepka already has top 5s in each of the 1st 3 majors of the year and he’s posted 4 top-10s in his last 6 Open Championship starts. His game is best suited for difficult conditions, which there certainly will be this week at Royal Liverpool. Never sleep on Koepka in majors. He lives for them.
Rory McIlroy (+150)
McIlroy’s odds are super short this week coming off his Scottish Open win, but they’re warranted. He’s finished in the top 10 in 6 of his last 7 major starts and was the runner-up at the U.S. Open just a month ago, a stretch that includes 4 top-5s, as well. At +150, there may not seem like a ton of value, but it’s a good bit of insurance in case he comes up just short again.
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The Open Championship – Top-10 picks
Tommy Fleetwood (+188)
Fleetwood has 2 top-4 finishes in the Open in his last 3 starts, so it’s not as if he hasn’t come close before. He also has 3 top-6s in his last 4 starts worldwide, including a T-6 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He has a great chance to win this week with the way he’s been playing as of late.
Tyrrell Hatton (+188)
Is this the week it all comes together for Hatton and he doesn’t get a single bad break to complain about? It’s a definite no on the latter, but Hatton is as well-rounded a player right now as there is outside of Scheffler and McIlroy. His worst finish since a T-34 at the Masters was a T-27 in the U.S. Open, notching 7 other top-20s in that span – including 4 top-10s.
Tony Finau (+375)
Finau doesn’t have the recent form that many of the other top players do, but he’s quietly been fantastic in Open Championships. In 6 starts, he’s never finished worse than T-28 and has 2 top-10s. The safer bet is a top-20 at +180, but the +375 line is tough to pass up.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Cameron Young (+400)
- Scottie Scheffler (-125)
The Open Championship – Top-20 picks
Rickie Fowler (+105)
Fowler has been a top-20 machine all year and he finally broke through with a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has 15 top-25 finishes in 21 starts this season, 9 of which have come in his last 12 starts. Getting him at plus-money for a top-20 feels like a bargain.
Min Woo Lee (+200)
Lee finished 35th at the Scottish Open, his 2nd good finish on links courses this year after coming in 2nd in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. In last year’s Open Championship, he finished 21st after missing the cut in 2021.
Brian Harman (+275)
Harman is an underrated links player and this course suits him well, requiring proper placement off the tee in order to avoid the penalizing bunkers. He came in 6th and 19th in the last 2 Open Championships and he finished 12th in the Scottish Open a week ago.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Corey Conners (+240)
- Tom Kim (+170)
The Open Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Corey Conners (+100) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (-125)
This isn’t going to be a course DeChambeau can overpower with his length, which is part of the reason I like Conners’ ball-striking in this matchup. He’s finished 15th and 28th in the last 2 Open Championships and came in 19th at the Scottish Open last week.
Tom Kim (-120) vs. Sam Burns (-105)
Neither Kim nor Burns has a lot of experience in the Open, but Kim has played really well in the Scottish Open the last 2 years, finishing 3rd and 6th. Burns finished 19th in this year’s Scottish Open but hasn’t done better than 42nd in the Open.
Adam Scott (-105) vs. Patrick Reed (-120)
Scott not only played in the last Open at Royal Liverpool, but he finished T-15. He’s only missed the cut twice in this tournament since 2010, proving his talent on links courses over the years.
The Open Championship – Top American
Jordan Spieth (+1600)
There are a lot of players to like in this category, including Scheffler and Koepka, but Spieth at +1600 – 8th-best of any American – is borderline disrespectful. Going back to his Open Championship history, it’s hard not to like the value here.
The Open Championship – Top Asian
Tom Kim (+333)
The biggest competitors here are Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An and Si Woo Kim. An obviously played well last week at the Scottish Open with a 3rd-place finish, but Kim should’ve cashed this bet; he 3-putted from 7 feet for double on 18 to lose by 1 to An. Im struggles badly on links courses, as has Matsuyama. And Kim has only finished better than 67th once in his last 4 Open starts.
The Open Championship – First-round leader
Viktor Hovland (+3300)
Back to Hovland FRL we go. He shot 65 in the opening round of the Masters, 68 in the PGA Championship and 69 in the U.S. Open, getting off to strong starts in all 3 majors this year.
Jordan Spieth (+4000)
Spieth fired an opening-round 65 in 2021 to sit just 1 shot back of the lead. He could come out firing after missing the cut at the Scottish Open last week, going low once again in the Open.
The Open Championship – To make the cut
Suggested play in bold.
- Sungjae Im: NO (+170) vs. Yes (-225)
- Wyndham Clark: NO (+220) vs. Yes (-300)
I’m going to fade both players this week, especially Im. He’s finished 81st and missed the cut in his 2 Open Championship starts and just missed the cut at the Scottish Open, the 2nd time he’s done so in 2 starts in that event. Links golf just doesn’t suit him.
With Clark, he hits a sweeping fade, which won’t work on the many left doglegs this week, especially in a left-to-right wind. He finished 76th in his Open debut last year, though he does have top-25s in the last 2 Scottish Opens.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group H winner: Brian Harman (+333)
I like Harman’s chances in this group against Denny McCarthy (+300), Gary Woodland (+300), Branden Grace (+400) and Lucas Herbert (+500). McCarthy is making his championship debut, Woodland has missed the cut in the last 3 years, Grace missed the cut in 2 of his last 3 Open starts and I simply like Harman over Herbert this week.
Any LIV Tour player to win the tournament (+400)
LIV players have performed well in the majors this year, particularly Koepka and Smith. With this bet, you’re also mixing in Dustin Johnson, who came in 12th on this very course in 2014.
Winning margin: 2 strokes (+350)
The winning margins have been all over the place in this tournament since 2013, ranging from a playoff to a 6-shot win by Shane Lowry. A win by 2 strokes feels like the right number this week.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Golfweek:
- Jon Rahm on being compensated for PGA Tour loyalty: ‘If they want to do it, I’m not going to say no’
- How players in 2023 British Open field fared in 2014 at Royal Liverpool
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