The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Auto Club Speedway (ACS) in Fontana, Calif., Sunday for the 2023 Pala Casino 400. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below we analyze at Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Pala Casino 400 odds, and make our NASCAR picks and predictions.
2023 Pala Casino 400: What you need to know
- Rain washed away qualifying Saturday, so the starting grid is set by performance metrics based on last week’s Daytona 500. The formula uses the fastest lap time position (15%), driver’s final race position (25%), owner’s final race position (25%) and owner’s team points position (35%).
- Based on the formula above, it was determined Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell will be in the top starting spot for Sunday’s race.
- Bell has the worst career Average-Finish Position (AFP) at Auto Club Speedway of any driver in the field, at 37.0 AFP. He has finished 36th and 38th in 2 starts there in the Cup series.
- Sunday’s weather forecast calls for mostly cloudy and dry conditions, with temperatures in the low 40’s, uncharacteristic for Southern California, that’s for sure.
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson is the defending champ at ACS, posting a win in a caution-filled race which featured a California-record 59 yellow-flag laps last February.
- Las Vegas native Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with a 9.8 AFP in 23 career starts in Fontana, including 4 victories.
- Outside of Busch, the rest of the field has accounted for 6 total wins at the track, spread across 5 drivers, with Larson taking 2 checkered flags. Alex Bowman, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski are the other drivers in the field with a ACS win.
- Michael McDowell has a dismal 34.3 AFP in 12 career Cup starts at the track, including 7 DNFs.
- TrackHouse Racing’s Ross Chastain has also had his issues at ACS, posting a 25.8 AFP in 4 career Cup starts with 0 laps led.
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2023 Pala Casino 400 – Expert pick
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:21 p.m. ET.
Last week at Daytona when long-shot Ricky Stenhouse Jr. took home the prize, the potential winner pool was quite expansive, and it was difficult to pinpoint a winner.
This race will be the first intermediate run of the season and the potential winner’s pool won’t be as great. We should have a return to the big-money teams bringing home the prize.
Hendrick’s KYLE LARSON (+650) won on this track last season, and he is the only other multi-winner at ACS in the current field outside of Kyle Busch. I don’t like the latter, especially as his transitions to a new team, crew chief, etc.
However, California native Larson is a solid value. In 8 career Cup starts at Fontana, he has won twice, posted 4 top-5 finishes, with 138 laps led.
If you want to go with a little more of a long shot, JGR’s MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+1200) ran well last week at Daytona until getting collected in a late wreck, ending up 15th. He has a win under his belt in California, and he has had 7 top-10 results in 21 Cup starts at the track. He is hungry for a win, as he looks to qualify for the playoffs after missing out in 2022.
2023 Pala Casino 400 prop pick
TOP-10 FINISH: MARTIN TRUEX JR. (-125)
MTJ is still a value at this price, although you will have to pay a little juice. Still, he has 21 career Cup starts here with 236 laps led, and he has finished inside the Top 10 on 7 different occasions. He ran well last week, and was in position for a top-10 finish before wreck which was not under his control.
TOP-10 FINISH: KEVIN HARVICK (-105)
The sun is setting on Happy Harvick’s career, but he isn’t expected to ride off quietly into retirement. He made plenty of noise last week in Daytona, and he has always run well at this track.
While Harvick has just 1 checkered flag in 28 career starts at ACS, he has 7 top-5 finishes, 14 top-10 runs and 238 laps led. Again, that’s 50% of his Cup starts resulting in top-10 finishes. At near even-money, this is a solid prop play.
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