2023 Denver Broncos Super Bowl odds with conference, division and win total best bets

The Denver Broncos made a giant splash last season, landing QB Russell Wilson in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks. It didn’t work out terribly well, as the Broncos really struggled to jell offensively, and Denver ended up bottoming out at 5-12 in the AFC West Division.

This offseason, the Broncos spent big dollars to bring coach Sean Payton to the Denver to try to turn things around after the 5-win season.

Wilson, a.k.a. Mr. Unlimited, was rather limited in his 1st season the Mile High City, completing 60.5% of his pass attempts for 3,524 yards, 16 TD and 11 INT in 2022, good for an 84.4 QB Rating, which was well below his career average of 100.2. His completion percentage was also more than 4 points lower than his career 64.6% average.

The Broncos have brought in QB Ben DiNucci, who just lit up the XFL with the Seattle Sea Dragons, although the former Dallas Cowboys understudy will simply compete to be the backup to Wilson.

Wilson will look to ride behind an improved offensive line, as the Broncos spent big on free agents T Mike McGlinchey and G Ben Powers. The team also splurged on RB Samaje Perine, formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals, to serve as the backup and insurance plan for RB Javonte Williams, who is returning from multiple ligament tears in his right knee.

The spending spree wasn’t all on offense, however, as the teams grabbed DE Zach Allen, as well as re-signing tackle machine LB Alex Singleton.

Below, we look at the Denver Broncos’ 2023 NFL Super Bowl odds from FanDuel Sportsbook along with projected win total, playoff, conference and division odds as we make our best NFL picks and predictions.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

2023 Denver Broncos schedule

WK	DATE	OPPONENT	TIME
All times ET
1	Sept. 10	vs. Raiders	4:25 p.m.
2	Sept. 17	vs. Commanders	4:25 p.m.
3	Sept. 24	at Dolphins	1 p.m.
4	Oct. 1	at Bears	1 p.m.
5	Oct. 8	vs. Jets	4:25 p.m.
6	Oct. 12 (Th)	at Chiefs	8:15 p.m.
7	Oct. 22	vs. Packers	4:25 p.m.
8	Oct. 29	vs. Chiefs	4:25 p.m.
9		BYE WEEK
10	Nov. 13 (M)	at Bills	8:15 p.m.
11	Nov. 19	vs. Vikings	8:20 p.m.
12	Nov. 26	vs. Browns	4:05 p.m.
13	Dec. 3	at Texans	4:05 p.m.
14	Dec. 10	at Chargers	4:25 p.m.
15	Dec. 16 or 17	at Lions	TBD
16	Dec. 24	vs. Patriots	8:15 p.m.
17	Dec. 31	vs. Chargers	4:25 p.m.
18	Jan. 6 or 7	at Raiders	TBD

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

Broncos over/under win total

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook – last updated May 18 at 1:05 a.m. ET; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list.

8.5 wins: (Over: +106 | Under: -132)

While I trust Payton will do a good job in his 1st season in Denver, the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t going anywhere, and the Los Angeles Chargers will still be a handful, too. The Broncos are likely to be battling it out with the Las Vegas Raiders to avoid the basement again in the AFC West.

Denver could potentially get off to a quick start with a pair of winnable games at home. In fact, the Broncos might make it through the first 5 games with a winning overall record before things start to get hairy in October. Both games against the Chiefs, sandwiching a visiting from the Green Bay Packers, might mean the Broncos have a losing record by the time the aspens drop their leaves in the Rocky Mountains.

It doesn’t get any easier after the team’s bye in early November, either, with prime-time games on the road against the Bills, and at home against the Vikings. I have gone over the schedule multiple times, and going from conservative to aggressive estimates, I keep coming up with 7 or 8 wins for the Broncos.

Ultimately, I find very little reason not to love UNDER 8.5 WINS (-132). The only drawback is that the juice is a little on the pricey side.

Broncos Super Bowl odds

+4500 (bet $100 to win $4,500)

The Broncos should be slightly improved over last season’s ugly last-place finish, but this isn’t a team which is going to leap into the double-digit wins territory and compete for a championship.

Wilson should be better, and Payton gives the team a lot more structure and leadership, but unless disaster strikes in Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati and New York (OK, New Jersey, really), the Broncos aren’t sniffing the Super Bowl. And that’s not to mention the division-rival Chargers, the Miami Dolphins, etc.

The Broncos aren’t getting close to the level of the Chiefs (+600), the team with the shortest odds to win Super Bowl 57. The defending NFC champ Philadelphia Eagles (+850) also outclasses the Broncos. In fact, Denver’s odds to win the big game are tied with the New England Patriots and New York Giants, and there are just 12 other teams with longer odds.

At +4500, Denver has an implied probability of winning the Super Bowl of 2.17% or 45/1 fractional odds.

The Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans have the longest odds at +18000.

AVOID backing the Broncos and getting sucked into the Payton hype. He’ll make a difference at the helm, perhaps helping Denver improve by 3 or 4 games in the standings. But that’s still nowhere good enough for a championship run.

Will the Broncos make the playoffs?

Yes +205 | No -260

While the books are a little bullish on the Broncos this season, in terms of win total, they don’t think much of Denver’s chances to make the postseason dance.

The AFC is loaded, and the Broncos are likely to be on the outside looking in once the tournament starts in January. I wouldn’t suggest tying up money for the season on a flier, even with a chance to potentially double up if the Broncos surprise. You would need key injuries to star players on several other teams for Denver to have a shot at the postseason. And even then, there are plenty of other teams with a more impressive array of personnel ahead of the Broncos.

However, I’d also AVOID a bet on No (-260), as one needs to risk more than 2 1/2 times your potential return, and there is little value in that play, too.

Odds to win AFC West Division

Chiefs -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Chargers +300 (bet $100 to win $300)
Broncos +550 (bet $100 to win $550)
Raiders +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)

The Broncos should be able to avoid the basement in the AFC West, although the Raiders are likely to be much better, too. Denver isn’t jumping over the Chargers and/or the Chiefs, however. The skill positions are good, but not great, and Wilson is getting long in the tooth. He isn’t in the same league as QB Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, or QB Justin Herbert of the Chargers.

I think Wilson will have a slight bounce back closer to his career numbers, but not anywhere near the level of play needed to challenge for the AFC West Division title. This is the same exact price as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the jumbled NFC South Division, and that is a price which represents some value since that division race is wide open. For the Broncos, it’s a PASS, though, in a stacked division.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Broncos odds to win AFC

+3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000)

The Broncos are a long shot to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 57, and it would basically be throwing money away to take a flier on Denver to go to the big game.

The Chiefs (+350), Bills (+450), Bengals (+500), Jets (+900), Ravens (+1000), Dolphins (+1200), Chargers (+1300), Jaguars (+1500), Browns (+1700) and Patriots (+2500) are all listed ahead of the Broncos for a shot at winning the AFC. Denver has the same odds as the Steelers (+3000), which are the 5th-longest odds in the AFC. In other words, the books aren’t feeling Denver to be in Las Vegas in February for Super Bowl 57, and you shouldn’t feel them, either. AVOID.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Access more NFL coverage:

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]