2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

This week doesn’t feature a post-major designated event like the RBC Heritage was the week after the Masters, but the stars will still be out at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning.

Below, we look at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Coming out of PGA Championship week, runner-up Scottie Scheffler will tee it up again at Colonial as the heavy favorite. He’s +400 to win this week, by far the shortest odds of anyone in the field. Sam Burns (+2800) will try to defend his title after winning here a year ago, going up against Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau and Collin Morikawa. PGA Championship sensation Michael Block received an invitation, too, after finishing 15th on Sunday.

Colonial is a par 70 and plays at 7,209 yards and this is the 78th time it’s hosting a PGA Tour event. It’s not a very long course and bombers off the tee won’t have a considerable advantage, which makes this a 2nd-shot course with an emphasis on iron play and positioning. Burns won at 9-under par last year, beating Scheffler in a playoff.

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Charles Schwab Challenge – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 2:53 p.m. ET.

Tony Finau (+1600)

So much of Colonial CC comes down to positioning and accuracy into the greens. Finau may not be viewed as an accurate driver of the golf ball but he’s deadly with his irons, ranking 5th in strokes gained: approach this season. It’s how he’s notched 4 straight top-25 finishes in this event, including a tie for 4th last year and 2nd in 2019. Ignore his struggles at the PGA Championship last week. This is a course he excels on.

Russell Henley (+4000)

Henley missed the cut at the PGA Championship but he ranked 8th in SG: approach. It was his putter that let him down. With this being a course where accuracy is more important than length, Henley is a good fit, ranking 1st in fairway percentage this season – by a wide margin: 73.56% vs. 70.35% for the No. 2 player. He’s also a great iron player and before his MC at the PGA, he had 3 straight top-20s, including a T-4 at the Masters.

Sungjae Im (+2200)

Im’s odds this week were certainly hurt by his dreadful showing at the PGA Championship where he shot 80 in the 1st round and 73 in Round 2. That didn’t seem like a course that fit his game, requiring length off the tee, which he doesn’t have much of. Colonial is perfect for Im, who can plot his way around a course and make birdies. He tied for 15th here last year and 10th in 2020.

Charles Schwab Challenge picks – Contenders

Cam Davis (+4500)

Davis’ stock is on the rise after tying for 4th at the PGA thanks to a final-round 65, and only 3 players in the field gained more strokes tee-to-green than Davis: Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Hovland. He tied for 7th here last year so it’s not as if his length was a disadvantage for him a year ago. He has 3 top-10s in his last 6 starts this season.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6000)

Bezuidenhout didn’t make the cut last week but he did finish 10th in SG: tee-to-green. The 9 players ahead of him all finished top-30, with 7 of them finishing in the top 10. It was just a terrible week of putting for Bezuidenhout, who lost 2.23 strokes to the field on the greens – 3rd-worst in the field. He tied for 15th here last year.

Brendon Todd (+6600)

Todd is an accuracy specialist off the tee, which makes him a good fit for Colonial. He finished 8th in 2021 and 3rd last year so his track record at this event, as limited as it is, is strong. Before missing the cut at the PGA Championship, he tied for 8th at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Charles Schwab Challenge picks – Long shots

Justin Suh (+9000)

Suh has been a cut-maker and a sleeper pick so far this season. After missing the cut in his 1st 3 starts, he’s only missed one since. He’s fresh off a T-26 at the PGA Championship, which could’ve been much better if not for a 74 in pristine conditions on Sunday. He didn’t excel in one area last week but he was good all-around, which bodes well at Colonial.

Beau Hossler (+10000)

Hossler went to the University of Texas and played well here last year when he tied for 21st after shooting 66 and 65 in the first 2 rounds. It’s surprising to see his odds so long considering the way he’s played lately, making the cut in 6 straight starts with 2 top-10s, including a 3rd-place finish at the Zurich Classic. He tied for 40th at the PGA Championship last week.

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