The NASCAR Cup Series is at Kansas Speedway Sunday for the 2023 AdventHealth 400. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 AdventHealth 400 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
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AdventHealth 400: What you need to know
- 23XI Racing driver Bubba Wallace picked up checkered in the fall race at Kansas, while Kurt Busch was the winner last spring
- Toyota has been to Victory Lane in 3 of the past 4 NASCAR Cup Series stops at Kansas Speedway, while Toyota has won 5 of the past 7 races at the track, too
- Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick is tied with Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Team Penske’s Joey Logano among active drivers with 3 wins at Kansas
- Harvick also leads all active drivers with a 9.9 Average-Finish Position (AFP) at Kansas, and 949 career laps led
- While Logano has the 3 wins, he also has a subpar 17.1 AFP with 4 SNFs
- Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell leads all active drivers with 7 DNFs in just 23 Cup Series starts at Kansas, and he has an abysmal 27.6 AFP
- TrackHouse Racing’s Ross Chastain has struggled in his Cup Series career at Kansas, posting a dismal 20.5 AFP in 8 career starts
- JTG Daugherty Racing driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has had a difficult time at Kansas, posting just a single top-10 result and a 20.1 AFP in 20 career Cup runs
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AdventHealth 400 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:15 a.m. ET.
CHASE ELLIOTT (+1200) is a tremendous value at this price.
The driver of the No. 9 machine rolls in with an 11.2 AFP, 2nd only to Harvick among active drivers at Kansas. In 14 career Cup starts, he has a win, 6 top-5 finishes and 8 top-10 runs while leading 197 laps. Elliott has also never had a DNF at Kansas Speedway.
AdventHealth 400 – Long shot
Again, KEVIN HARVICK (+1800) has 3 career Cup wins at Kansas, and his AFP is better than all active drivers.
Harvick started the season well, posting 3 top-5 finishes in a 7-racing span from Feb. 26 to April 9, but he has been 19th or worse in the past 3 outings. There is plenty of risk here, but Harvick has always run well at Kansas, and Sunday will be no exception.
If you want a little bit more of a safer play, check out HARVICK TOP 5 FINISH (+240) for a chance to still more than double up.
AdventHealth 400 prop pick(s)
CHRISTOPHER BELL (-110) over William Byron
Bell has acquitted himself well at Kansas during his Cup career, posting a respectable 12.8 AFP in 6 Cup starts with 4 finishes inside the Top 10 and 49 laps led. He has been as high as 3rd at Kansas, too.
Byron hasn’t had the same kind of success, posting a 15.1 AFP in 10 career Cup starts, but he has just a single top-5 finish at the track, while crashing out in 2 of the 10 Cup runs.
TOP TOYOTA – CHRISTOPHER BELL (+360)
We hit Martin Truex Jr. as the Top Toyota last week at Dover, and now we’ll look to ring the register with Bell.
As mentioned, he has enjoyed some nice success at Kansas in the past, and he’ll be up front running for a win Sunday evening. He was 6th at Dover last week and 8th at Talladega the week prior. He has been 8th or better in 4 of his past 5 Cup Series starts, too.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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