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The PGA Tour is in Minnesota this week for the 2023 3M Open, which is once again being held at TPC Twin Cities. It’s only the 5th edition of this tournament, which was won by Tony Finau last year.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 3M Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
While the field this week is relatively strong, none of the top 10 players in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings are teeing it up at TPC Twin Cities. Finau is the highest-ranked player in the field, coming in at No. 11, followed by Cameron Young at 12 and Sungjae Im at No. 13.
TPC Twin Cities is a par 71 and will play at 7,431 yards. It was designed by Arnold Palmer and renovated in 2018 before the course became the host of a PGA Tour event in 2019. There are an abundance of water hazards throughout the course, but those don’t make it a particularly difficult track. The winning score has ranged from 15-under to 21-under par.
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3M Open – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Sungjae Im (+300)
Im has only played this event in 2 of the 4 years of its existence but he was near the top of the leaderboard both times. Last year, he was the runner-up to Finau, and in 2019, he finished 15th. This is the perfect type of tournament for him, with scores expected to be low once again.
Emiliano Grillo (+450)
Grillo just finished 6th in The Open Championship and now comes to an event where he finished 2nd in 2022 and 3rd in 2020. There was a missed cut in between, but those top-5 finishes are enough to make me bet him for another top 5 this week.
3M Open – Top-10 picks
Tony Finau (+138)
It feels a bit risky to bet Finau right now after he missed the cut in his last 2 starts, but this is a tournament where he hasn’t finished worse than 28th in 4 tries and has notched 2 top-5s, including a win. His odds for a top 10 would be even shorter had he played better last week at Royal Liverpool.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+350)
Hojgaard has never played this event but he’s finished 21st, 6th and 23rd in his last 3 starts, so he comes in with a lot of momentum. There’s no real weakness to his game right now, though he could improve off the tee where he’s losing 0.023 strokes to the field.
Cam Davis (+300)
In the last 3 years here, Davis has finished 12th, 28th and 16th. He also has 2 top-35 finishes in his last 3 starts this season, so he’s playing relatively well coming into the week. His putter has been ice cold all year (167th in SG: putting) but if that club heats up at all, he could be in for a good week.
3M Open – Top-20 picks
Ludvig Aberg (+170)
Aberg has a complete game for a course like TPC Twin Cities, particularly when it comes to his ball striking from tee to green. He seems bound to win at some point soon, and in the meantime, he’s a solid bet for a top-20 at +170.
Chez Reavie (+350)
Reavie has finished 11th and 49th in his 2 starts at this tournament and he just finished 4th at the Travelers Championship last month, followed by 2 more top-40 finishes.
Austin Eckroat (+250)
Eckroat was on a tear in May and June, finishing in the top 30 five times in a row. He finished 16th here in 2021, which was his only start at the 3M Open, but he has a decent shot to notch another top 20; he has 5 top-20s since January.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Justin Suh (+250)
- J.T. Poston (+180)
3M Open – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Sungjae Im (-120) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (-105)
Im and Matsuyama are in similar spots coming into the week. They each finished in the top 20 at The Open Championship and have each finished in the top 10 once here before. But Im came in 2nd here last year when Matsuyama withdrew, making 2019 the last time Hideki played this event.
J.T. Poston (-110) vs. Keith Mitchell (-110)
Poston notched back-to-back 6th-place finishes in his 2 starts before coming in 41st at Royal Liverpool last week, continuing what’s been a very good season for him. He’s a short hitter but a good putter, which helped him come in 28th and 11th in this tournament the last 2 years.
3M Open – First-round leader
Sungjae Im (+3000)
Im fired a first-round 65 here last year, which was just 2 shots off the lead on Thursday. He also shot 65 in the opening round here in 2019, though that was still not enough to be the leader after Round 1. He’s come out firing in this event before, which makes him a solid pick.
Cameron Champ (+8000)
Champ won this tournament in 2021 and finished 16th last year, firing rounds in the 60s in 7 of his 8 attempts since 2021. He’s a powerful player who can also be volatile, but that makes him a fun FRL bet.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group A winner: Sungjae Im (+350)
Im is in the top betting group this week, going up against Finau (+275), Young (+333), Matsuyama (+400) and Justin Thomas (+450). Thomas is having a really tough time on the course right now, so he’s not much of a threat to contend this week. Finau, Young and Matsuyama will all be tough, but Im has a great track record at TPC Twin Cities.
Winning margin: 2 strokes (+350)
The winning margin has been 2 shots in 2 of the 4 years that this tournament has been played.
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Golfweek:
- Scotty Cameron Champions Choice putters
- New college golf event coming to Old Course at St. Andrews in October
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