The PGA Tour is in the Washington, D.C., area this week for the Wells Fargo Championship, which is typically held in Charlotte, N.C. It’s been relocated for this year as Quail Hollow prepares to host the Presidents Cup in September. TPC Potomac is a fantastic course to be hosting the event. Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Rory McIlroy headlines the field as the defending champion, winning the 2021 event at Quail Hollow. It’s his first start since the Masters when he fired a 64 to tie the final-round record. McIlroy is 7th in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, making him the highest-ranked player in the Wells Fargo field, which includes No. 16 Corey Conners and No. 17 Russell Henley.
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2022 Wells Fargo Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+480)
Fitzpatrick was playing well and tied tied for 14th at the Masters before missing the cut at the RBC Heritage. He tends to play better at non-majors, so I like him in this spot with his ball striking (5th in SG: Tee to green).
Gary Woodland (+700)
In his first start since the Masters, Woodland tied for 24th last week in Mexico. Outside of 2 missed cuts since the end of February, Woodland has been playing very well with 3 top-10s and 5 top-25s. He’s a good bet to finish in the top-5 at +700.
Max Homa (+750)
Homa has 1 win and 2 top-10 finishes this season, and hasn’t missed a cut since the Farmers Insurance Open in January. Always a reliable and steady pick, Homa is a cut-maker who often contends for a top-10 spot on Sunday. But this week, I think he finishes even higher in D.C.
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2022 Wells Fargo Championship – Top-10 picks
Rory McIlroy (+130)
This is a bit like taking Jon Rahm to finish top-5 last week at even money. You could also go with Rory to come in the top-5 at +250, but there’s less risk by going top-10 at +130. Even if he’s not fully in contention on Sunday – which I think he will be – he’s the king of backdoor top-10s by going low in the final round to finish near the top.
Corey Conners (+220)
Conners’ outright odds feel a bit juiced because it is a relatively strong field, but I like his number to finish top-10. He has 2 top-10s this season, but he’s also finished 11th or 12th three times. This is a nice little safe play, even as insurance if you take Conners to win outright.
Keith Mitchell (+450)
Mitchell hasn’t won this season but he has come in third once and finished in the top-10 four times. He’s come close, and there could be another top-10 this week in D.C. He just has to dial in his irons and improve on the greens.
Other T10 contender: Joel Dahmen (+550)
2022 Wells Fargo Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Gary Woodland (-125) vs. Paul Casey (+105)
Casey has withdrawn in each of his last 2 starts. I’m not saying he’s going to withdraw again, but he’s had trouble playing all 4 rounds and there could be some rust to knock off after a little bit of a layoff.
Max Homa (-115) vs. Cameron Young (+100)
Young has a lot of firepower, but he’s also inconsistent and picking him to beat a guy who regularly makes cuts isn’t something I want to do. I like Homa in this spot.
Si Woo Kim (-110) vs. Webb Simpson (-110)
Simpson has had an underwhelming season that has featured just 1 top-10 and 2 missed cuts. Kim has made the cut 15 times in 17 starts this season and has 8 top-25 finishes, plus another pair of T-26s.
2022 Wells Fargo Championship – Top English player
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+220)
Tyrell Hatton and Paul Casey are Fitzpatrick’s biggest competitors, while Aaron Rai could also make a run, too. Fitzpatrick is the best of the bunch and I’m betting he’ll finish ahead of the other 7 Englishmen in the field.
2022 Wells Fargo Championship – First-round leader
Cameron Young (+5000)
Young absolutely kills the ball off the tee, ranking 5th on tour in driving distance. It helped him grab a first-round lead at the RBC Heritage with a 63, but Rounds 2 and 3 pulled him back. He has the power to go low Thursday.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group D winner: Keith Mitchell (+320)
Group D features Kim (+320), Matt Kuchar (+350), Jhonnatan Vegas (+350) and Joel Dahmen (+380). Dahmen is admittedly tempting in this well-rounded group, but I’ll go with Mitchell.
Winning margin: 2 shots (+400)
This is a competitive field, but this tournament doesn’t typically yield close finishes. Only once since 2015 has the winning margin been fewer than 2 shots. If McIlroy doesn’t blow away the field, I could see a 2-shot win Sunday.
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Golfweek:
- Rory McIlroy reawakened his best self by winning the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship
- Game-improvement irons for 2022
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