The San Diego Padres fell well short of lofty expectations last season after a second-half collapse that saw them go 26-43 following the All-Star game.
San Diego’s collapse resulted in the organization replacing former manager Jayce Tingler with three-time Manager of the Year Bob Melvin.
The Padres’ lineup is loaded for Melvin and is one of the best on paper once superstar SS Fernando Tatis Jr. returns from a wrist injury, likely in early June.
San Diego has the fifth-biggest payroll in the MLB and the talent to reach the fall classic but can the Padres get over the hump?
Below, we look at the San Diego Padres’ MLB futures odds, including their projected 2022 win total and World Series odds at Tipico Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres’ 2022 World Series odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday, April 3 at 8:47 a.m. ET.
Odds: +1500 (bet $100 to win $1,500)
SPRINKLE on the PADRES TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES (+1500). There’s a world where San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers have a similar division race as L.A. and the San Francisco Giants did last season.
The Padres have made slight improvements across the board (more on that below) and San Diego’s ceiling is the second-best team in the NL.
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
San Diego Padres’ 2022 playoff odds
Will the Padres make the playoffs: Yes -230 | No +190
PASS.
The new 12-team postseason format opens the door for an extra playoff team in each league and the Padres are one of the six best teams in the NL. However, San Diego’s “yes, to make the playoffs” (-230) needs to be a lock to justify risking more than 2-to-1, and it isn’t.
San Diego Padres’ 2022 win total
Over/Under: 88.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
LEAN to the PADRES OVER 88.5 (-105) wins because they made improvements across the board and were on pace for a 90-plus-win season in 2021 before their absurd collapse.
Plus the Padres had a minus-4 luck factor last season, meaning they finished with four fewer wins than they should have based on run differential.
However, San Diego’s lineup had a disappointing season at the plate last year and that’s due to progress with the NL’s adoption of the universal DH.
The Padres were only 14th in WAR and wRC+ and 16th in wOBA but had encouraging hitting peripherals. San Diego was seventh in hard-hit rate and eighth in exit velocity. I’m willing to give San Diego’s lineup a mulligan on last season and expect it to rake once Tatis returns before the All-Star break.
The rotation is San Diego’s biggest question mark entering the season. RHP Yu Darvish‘s numbers took a nosedive when the MLB instituted its sticky substance policy in late June. Darvish finished the season 1-9 with a 6.25 ERA and allowed 2.12 home runs per nine innings across 15 starts following the change.
LHP Blake Snell is rarely healthy and has only pitched more 130 innings once in his six big league seasons. RHP Mike Clevinger‘s return should give a much-needed boost to the rotation and help the bullpen.
Clevinger missed 2021 after recovering from Tommy John surgery and could easily become San Diego’s No. 2 starter by the season’s end. Clevinger had a 2.96 ERA and 0.92 HR/9 from 2017-20 while pitching mostly for the Cleveland Guardians.
Clevinger’s return allows the Padres to send the fringe starters they were using last season to the bullpen. Arms like RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Dinelson Lamet are “bottom of the rotation” starters who can become elite relief pitchers.
It’s only a LEAN to the PADRES OVER 88.5 WINS (-105) because San Diego’s pitching is a wild-card.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Odds to win NL West Division
- Los Angeles Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- San Diego Padres +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
- San Francisco Giants +480 (bet $100 to win $480)
- Colorado Rockies +10000 (bet $100 to win $10,000)
- Arizona Diamondbacks +10000 (bet $100 to win $10,000)
PASS.
I don’t see the Dodgers winning fewer than 100 games so the Padres (+320) isn’t nearly juicy enough to entice action. Everything would need to break right for San Diego to be in contention for the division come October and L.A. could still win the NL West.
Odds to win National League
Odds: +700 (bet $100 to win $700)
PASS.
Unless the Padres win the NL West, their odds to win the pennant entering the postseason could be around the same number.
That said, San Diego is the seventh favorite to win the NL, one spot behind the New York Mets and the Padres have more long-term value than the Mets.
Want some action on the 2022 MLB season? Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]