This will be the first time St. George’s Golf and Country Club in Toronto has hosted the Canadian Open since 2010. The field consists of 156 golfers with the top 65 players making the 36-hole cut and a prize pool of $8.7 million.
Even though several of golf’s elite are skipping this tourney to rest and prepare for next week’s 122nd U.S. Open, there are still big names in the field. Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 RBC Canadian Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Notable entrants include Golfweek’s No. 2 overall golfer, and 2022 Masters champion, Scottie Scheffler, 2022 PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas, reigning RBC Canadian Open champion Rory McIlroy and this month’s Charles Schwab Challenge champ Sam Burns.
There are numerous ways to eke out a profit betting golf, let’s tackle some prop markets at this week’s 2022 RBC Canadian Open.
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2022 RBC Canadian Open – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:28 p.m. ET.
Cameron Smith (+250)
As discussed Monday, Smith tops my mixed model rankings for the Canadian Open for various reasons. He’s the 2nd-ranked golfer in this field in Strokes Gained (SG) over the last 5 tournaments and the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world at total SG, according to DataGolf.com.
The weather forecast in Toronto for the Canadian Open shows double-digit wind speeds and gusts in the mid-teens with a possibility of rain Thursday and Sunday. Smith ranks 4th in SG: Total in tournaments with moderate wind speeds (according to FantasyNational.com).
Also, the average winning score of the last 6 Canadian Opens is roughly 19-under-par i.e. easy scoring conditions and Smith is 3rd in this field for SG: Total at courses with easy scoring conditions.
Lastly, Smith has one of the best short-games in the world and St. George’s is a short course that lends itself to golfers who are good around-the-green (ARG) and inside of 150 yards on 2nd shots.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Justin Thomas (+200)
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2022 RBC Canadian Open – Top-10 picks
Tony Finau (+250)
Finau ranks 8th in this field in SG over the last 24 rounds (2 top-10s in his last 4 tourneys). He ranks top-10 for SG in this field in total SG, T2G, off-the-tee (OTT), ball-striking and approach over that span.
The rub on Finau is his struggles in majors, but he typically performs well in weaker fields. Finau has top-10 finishes in several tournaments played on courses comparable to St. George’s, including the Shriners Open (7th in 2014 and 9th in 2019), the American Express (4th in 2021) and the Byron Nelson (10th in 2015).
Finally, Finau should have plenty of scoring opportunities at St. George’s considering he ranks 9th in this field for greens-in-regulation gained (per Fantasy National).
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Shane Lowry (+185)
- Adam Hadwin (+350)
2022 RBC Canadian Open – Top-20 picks
Adam Hadwin (+162)
Hadwin is an RBC-sponsored Canadian golfer who has performed well at the Canadian Open (6th in 2019 and 7th in 2015).
There’s a solid chance many of the golfers priced ahead of Hadwin are using the Canadian Open as more-or-less a practice tourney for next week’s U.S. Open. But, a Canadian Open victory should mean a little more to Hadwin.
Hadwin has 4 top-20 finishes in his last 7 events played: 18th at the Memorial, 4th at the Valero, 7th at the Valspar and 9th at THE PLAYERS.
More importantly, Hadwin is 5th in my custom stat model over the last 50 rounds including 3rd in SG: Par 3 and 4th in Sand Saves. There are 5 Par 3s at St. George’s and most of the holes are surrounded by bunkers.
Harold Varner III (+140)
We are getting a good price on Varner due to his meltdown on the back-9 in the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Varner was tied for the lead at 10-under at the Schwab after the 11th hole but finished T27 at even par.
Otherwise, Varner has played well this year with a 3rd at the RBC Heritage in April, 6th at THE PLAYERS in March and a victory at the PIF Saudi International on the Asian Tour in February. Despite Varner’s poor finish at the Schwab, he’s still 8th in SG over the last 24 rounds.
Varner also ranks 8th on both my mixed model (provided by Fantasy National) and SG: Par 3 over the last 50 rounds. Furthermore, Varner is 6th in birdies-or-better gained and 19th in Sand Saves over the last 50 rounds.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Ryan Armour (+425)
- Tony Finau (+115)
2022 RBC Canadian Open – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Justin Thomas (+100) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-120)
Scheffler has been the hottest golfer on tour this year but I’ll take Thomas as an underdog in a head-to-head at almost any tournament.
Thomas is the best golfer in the world by the eye-ball test, ranks slightly ahead of Scheffler on my custom stat model and slightly ahead of Scheffler in SG for 2022 (per Data Golf).
Also, we could be getting a buy-low spot for Thomas who just missed his first cut in 22 tournaments at the Charles Schwab Challenge while Scheffler lost a playoff to Burns at the Schwab.
Finally, Thomas ranks 1st in SG: T2G at courses less than 7,200 yards in this field, 1st in SG: Total in moderate winds and 1st in SG at courses with easy scoring conditions.
Brendon Todd (+100) vs. Justin Rose (-135) in the 1st round
This is mispriced because Rose is the 2013 U.S. Open champion and has top-10s in several other major appearances whereas Todd has never finished in the top 10 of a major. But Todd is playing much better golf coming into the Canadian Open and performs much better than Rose in a few key areas.
Todd finished 3rd in May’s Charles Schwab Challenge and has a plus-0.69 SG vs. his personal baseline over the last 5 events, per Data Golf. While Rose has a minus-0.63 SG vs. his personal baseline over the last 5 events and has missed the cut in 4 of his last 5 stroke-play tournaments.
Moreover, Todd is 5th in SG: Par 3 and 7th in Sand Saves and over the last 50 rounds with a 72% drive accuracy over the last 12 months (per Fantasy National). Rose is 55th in SG: Par 3 and 105th in Sand Saves with a 62% drive accuracy over the last year.
The Par 3 stat was used since there are 5 Par 3 holes at St. George’s and the Sand Saves because most holes on this course are surrounded by bunkers.
2022 RBC Canadian Open – Top Irish
Shane Lowry (+125)
This is pretty much a head-to-head since the only other Irish golfer available in this market is McIlroy who won the last Canadian Open in 2019.
But this is too good of a price for Lowry, who ranks ahead of McIlroy in several key categories over the past 50 rounds such as SG: Par 3, Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500, Sand Saves and Proximity: 125-200 per Fantasy National.
Also, Lowry is one of the best bad weather golfers in the world so if the elements become a factor at the Canadian Open I want to back a guy like Lowry.
Finally, McIlroy’s price in this market (-180) could be inflated due to him being the defending champion. But, Lowry finished T2 at the 2019 RBC Canadian Open and was only 1 stroke behind McIlroy heading into the final round before McIlroy fired a 9-under in Round 4 to win that tourney.
BET LOWRY (+125) to be the best Irish golfer in this year’s Canadian Open.
2022 RBC Canadian Open – To make the cut
Suggested play in bold.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: NO (+280) vs. Yes (-450)
Fitzpatrick missed the cut at last week’s Memorial and generally performs well in tourneys following missed cuts and hasn’t missed 2 straight cuts since 2022.
But Fitzpatrick’s worst putting surface is Bent grass, which makes up the greens at St. George’s. Fitzpatrick gave up 7.6 strokes on the greens at the Memorial (Bent grass greens) and 3.3 strokes putting at April’s RBC Heritage. The Canadian Open could be a birdie-fest so if Fitzpatrick’s putter goes cold he might be done by Friday.
Lastly, Fitzpatrick’s game is better suited for tough scoring conditions and he ranks 61st in this field for SG at comp courses used.
It’s more of a “sprinkle” but FITZPATRICK TO MISS THE CUT (+280) has some value.
More expert prop bet predictions
Will there be a hole in one? Yes (-150)
There are 5 Par 3s at St. George’s and none of them have water hazards so every golfer will be attacking the pin. The 2nd-easiest hole on this course is 6th hole, which is a 146-yard Par 3. Six of the top-10 golfers by Par 3 scoring on the PGA Tour are in the Canadian Open field.
Also, the costly “Yes, there will be a hole in one” price suggests Tipico is trying to steer bettors towards the “No” (+110).
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Golfweek:
- Tiger Woods will not play in next week’s U.S. Open: ‘My body needs more time’
- ‘I’ll be there:’ Per report, Phil Mickelson plans on playing U.S. Open, all LIV Golf Invitational Series events
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