Jon Rahm leads the field as the overwhelming favorite at the Mexico Open as he seeks his first win this PGA Tour season. He’ll need to hold off the likes of Tony Finau and Kevin Na, but there’s no doubt Rahm has the best chance to win this week. Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 Mexico Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Rahm will tee off Thursday as the second-best player in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings behind world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is not playing in the Mexico Open. Aaron Wise (40th), Abraham Ancer (41st) and Na (45th) are also in the top 50 of the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.
With this being the first time the Mexico Open will be played on the PGA Tour schedule, there isn’t any history to reference. Vidanta Vallarta is also a new course, opening in 2015, so this is a new look for players in the field.
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2022 Mexico Open – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2:09 p.m. ET.
Sebastian Muñoz (+600)
Muñoz has been playing relatively well for the last 3 months, but he’s failed to crack the top-20 since November. In his last 5 stroke-play events, he’s finished between T-21 and T-39.
This could be the week he breaks through and grabs his third top-5 finish of the season. Putting has been his weakness all season, but if he can find a groove on the greens he’ll find himself in contention on Sunday.
Aaron Wise (+650)
Wise has 5 top-25 finishes in 13 starts this season, including 2 top-10s. He’s a good ball-striker, ranking 30th on tour in strokes gained: tee to green, but like Muñoz, he struggles on the greens.
In an overall weaker field, Wise has a good chance to finish near the top in Mexico this week.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Sahith Theegala (+1300)
- Chris Kirk (+700)
- Jon Rahm (+115)
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2022 Mexico Open – Top-10 picks
Gary Woodland (+220)
Woodland is a good value at +220 to finish in the top 10. He has 4 top-10s in 13 events played this season, including a T-8 a few weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open and back-to-back T-5s at the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational – the latter of which he very easily could’ve won if not for a late-round collapse.
Russell Knox (+550)
Knox is coming off a T-21 at the two-man Zurich Classic, making up for a missed cut at the RBC Heritage. He’s great from tee to green (28th in strokes gained) but he’s 198th on tour in putting. As we’ve seen countless times before, though, any player can get hot on the greens in a given week.
Mark Hubbard (+600)
Hubbard doesn’t have a top-10 finish yet this season, but he’s come close with 3 top-16s. Aside from his lack of length off the tee, Hubbard has a well-rounded game, from his irons to his work around the greens to his putting, ranking inside the top-70 on tour in all 3 categories. With longer odds to finish top-10, he’s worth a shot.
2022 Mexico Open – Matchups
Sebastian Munoz (-120) vs. Cameron Tringale (+100)
Tringale is playing really well right now, finishing T-12 and T-10 in his last 2 starts. He has 4 top-10s and 8 top-25s this season. But Muñoz is poised for a good week in Mexico and I think he finishes higher on the leaderboard than Tringale.
Russell Knox (-110) vs. Aaron Rai (-110)
I’m buying Knox again here because of his ball-striking and weaker field as a whole. He doesn’t miss many cuts and usually finds himself in the top-35 or so.
Gary Woodland (-125) vs. Patrick Reed (+105)
Woodland has had a few close calls this season. Reed has not. Reed hasn’t finished better than T-26 since the limited field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, when he was T-15. It’s been a terrible season for Reed and I’m fading him here against Woodland.
2022 Mexico Open – Top American
Gary Woodland (+1500)
There’s a lot of Woodland in these picks but it’s hard not to like his chances in a field that doesn’t feature many stars, especially when you can get him at +1500 without Jon Rahm in the picture. Reed is somehow the favorite as the top American at +600, while Doug Ghim and Finau both have better odds than Woodland, too. This feels like a steal.
2022 Mexico Open – First-round leader
Tony Finau (+4000)
Finau is a hot-and-cold player, and while I’m not willing to take him to win at his current odds (+2000), I’ll take a shot on Finau to have the lowest opening round on a course that’s not in the PGA Tour rotation.
Kevin Na (+4000)
Na shot a first-round 61 at the Sony Open, and while that’s a different course than Vidanta Vallarta, he has the ability to go really low in a given round.
2022 Mexico Open – To make the cut
Patrick Reed: Yes (-400) vs. NO (+260)
Sorry, Patrick, but I’m fading you again. It’s a field without much star power, which should make it easier for Reed to make the cut, but he’s just not been playing well right now and is struggling with every part of his game outside of putting.
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