The NASCAR Cup Series is at the Homestead-Miami Speedway Sunday for the 2022 Dixie Vodka 400. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Below we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the 2022 Dixie Vodka 400 odds, and make our NASCAR picks and predictions.
2022 Dixie Vodka 400: What you need to know
- This is the 2nd of 3 races in the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs; currently 8 drivers remain alive for the championship after Sunday
- Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with a 7.3 Average-Finish Position (AFP – min. 3 starts) at HMS, winning 1 race while posting 12 top-5 finishes and 414 laps led
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin has 3 career victories at Homestead-Miami, while producing 5 top-5 finishes in his 17 Cup starts, good for a 10.0 AFP
- Chevrolet broke the dominance of Ford and Toyota in February 2021 when William Byron scored a win. Toyota had won 3 of the previous 4 at the track, with Ford scoring a win in November 2018
- Championship contender and Sunshine State native Ross Chastain has struggled at the Florida track, posting a 28.3 AFP in 3 Cup starts
- Chase Briscoe finished 18th in his lone Cup appearance last season at HMS
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2022 Dixie Vodka 400 – Expert pick(s)
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:06 p.m. ET.
DENNY HAMLIN (+1000) has produced consistent results at this track, and he is a strong play as a result. He has ended up inside the top 10 in 11 of his 17 career Cup runs, while totaling 393 laps led, 3rd only to teammate Kyle Busch (465) and Kevin Harvick (414). Hamlin goes off 14th Sunday.
KYLE BUSCH (+1500) is a strong value play. He has registered 2 wins with 5 top-5 finishes and 10 top-10 runs while posting a 15.4 AFP. His time with JGR is winding down, but he could go out with a bang. Rowdy starts 11th.
2022 Dixie Vodka 400 – Contender
KEVIN HARVICK (+2000) is worth a roll of the dice, as he has had tremendous results here, including a checkered flag in 2014 en route to his then-named Sprint Cup Series championship.
Harvick has a win, 12 top-5 results, 18 top-10 finishes and 414 laps led, starting at 11.2 on average, while finishing with a 7.3 AFP, best among all active drivers with at least 3 career Cup starts. Harvick will try to work his way up from the 16th spot in the starting grid.
2022 Dixie Vodka 400 prop pick(s)
KEVIN HARVICK TOP-10 FINISH (-110)
As mentioned above, Harvick has the win here in 2014, but he is probably more of a realistic play for a top-10 finish than a straight-up win. He isn’t among the final 8 contending for a championship, and his starting spot of 16th is just OK, not great.
In 21 career Cup starts, he has brought it home 10th or better in 18 starts, good for an 85.7% conversion rate. That’s well worth the bet.
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