Some of the top players in the world are in the field at this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, getting in some final prep before next week’s PGA Championship at Southern Hills. They’ll be competing at TPC Craig Ranch, which is hosting this event for just the second time.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler, who won the Masters in April, is teeing it up in his hometown of Dallas. The No. 2 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings is the highest-ranked player in the field with No. 1 Jon Rahm not playing. No. 3 Justin Thomas is the only other top-5 player in this week’s field.
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2022 AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 1:23 p.m. ET.
Will Zalatoris (+500)
I love Zalatoris this week, and while he’s a great outright pick, there’s also excellent value in taking him to finish in the top 5 at +500. He tied for 7th here last year and the Dallas native has played TPC Craig Ranch a bunch.
Jordan Spieth (+480)
Spieth has never won the AT&T Byron Nelson, but he loves playing in his home state of Texas. He tied for 9th at this event last year and in his most recent start he won the RBC Heritage in a playoff over Patrick Cantlay. Buy high on Spieth heading into the second major.
Scottie Scheffler (+270)
I promise I’m not strictly picking guys from Texas, but it just so happens that I like Scheffler a lot this week too. Ignore his T-47 finish here last year and look at his recent form: 1st, 1st, T-55, 1st, T-7, 1st in his last 6 starts, excluding the 2-man Zurich Classic. He’s finished first or second in 5 of his 14 starts, and top 10 in 7 of 14.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Talor Gooch (+900)
- Brooks Koepka (+750)
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2022 AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-20 picks
Sam Burns (+115)
Burns was the closest guy to taking down K.H. Lee last year, finishing solo second at 22-under-par, 3 off the pace set by Lee. This event is going to be a birdie fest again, so why not take the guy who ranks 7th on tour in birdie average? Getting him at plus money to finish top-20 is a great value.
Hideki Matsuyama (+150)
Matsuyama is playing better as of late, tying for 14th at the Masters after a top 20 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He went 68-70-68-70 at this tournament last year, tying for 39th. I like his chances to end the week inside the top 20 leading into the season’s second major.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Harry Higgs (+700)
- Luke List (+330)
- Patton Kizzire (+320)
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Jhonattan Vegas (-110) vs. Jason Day (-110)
Don’t look now, but Vegas has 4 straight top-27 finishes, including a T-4, T-18 and T-15 in his last 3 starts. Day looked good in the first 2 rounds last week, but he’s been volatile this season. Take the steady Vegas.
Hideki Matsuyama (-120) vs. Joaquin Niemann (+100)
Niemann had to withdraw from the Zurich Classic due to a back injury to his teammate, Mito Pereira. Both players will be well-rested, but I like Matsuyama on this course as he preps for the PGA Championship.
Tommy Fleetwood (-135) vs. Adam Scott (+115)
Scott has had an up-and-down year, with 3 top-10s but also 5 finishes outside the top-35 in 10 starts. Fleetwood is beginning to round into form, finishing no worse than T-22 in his last 5 individual stroke play events. His line is juiced, but he’s still worth a bet in this matchup.
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson – Top American
Will Zalatoris (+1300)
There are admittedly a ton of talented players for Zalatoris to contend with in this group, from Scheffler to Gooch. But you’re getting him at a good number on a course he’s very familiar with.
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson – Top Australian
Marc Leishman (+250)
There are only 5 Australians in the field, with Scott and Day being the only ones with better odds than Leishman in this group. Leishman tied for 21st at this tournament in 2021 and he could have a similar week this year.
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson – First-round leader
Jordan Spieth (+4000)
Spieth was tied with J.J. Spaun for the first-round lead after a 63 on Thursday last year. He also fired a third-round 66 on Saturday, so he knows how to go low at TPC Craig Ranch. If his putter heats up, he can put a lot of red numbers on the card.
Cameron Champ (+6000)
Champ got out of the gates slow here last year with a first-round 72, but he came back with a 66 in Round 2 to make the cut. I love the way he’s playing right now, tying for 10th and 6th in his last 2 starts.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group D winner: Maverick McNealy (+300)
McNealy wasn’t in the field at TPC Craig Ranch last year and this will only be his second time playing the AT&T Byron Nelson. However, he’s been a cut-maker this season, only missing the cut once in 15 individual stroke-play events – and that was back in October. I’ll take him to beat out Adam Hadwin (+280), Alex Noren (+330), Brian Harman (+350) and Matt Kuchar (+480).
Winning margin: 1 shot (+250)
There are going to be a ton of birdies made this week and with a star-studded field, I expect some of the top names to be in contention on an exciting Sunday. Last year, only 4 shots separated 2nd from 9th. I don’t see anyone running away with it this year.
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Golfweek:
- 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson leaderboard, odds to win in 2022
- Here’s how Southern Hills has changed ahead of 2022 PGA Championship
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