The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Martinsville Speedway Sunday for the Xfinity 500. The green flag is set to drop at approximately 2:05 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Xfinity 500 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.
This is the final race before the NASCAR Cup Series field of eight drivers is whittled down to four for the championship race next weekend in Phoenix.
2021 Xfinity 500: What you need to know
- Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. picked up the win in the first race at Martinsville April 11, averaging 67.316 mph in a race with 18 lead changes. That was the slowest average speed at Martinsville since Oct. 24, 2004. MTJ has won three of the last four at the track, too.
- Toyota has won three of the last four races at Martinsville and five of the last 11. Chevrolet has two wins during the span, with Ford claiming checkers in four of those starts since April 2016.
- JGR’s Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with five checkered flags at Martinsville, and he has 16 top-5 finishes with a 9.71 Average-Finish Position (AFP).
- Penske’s Brad Keselowski has an 11.7 AFP in 23 career Cup starts at Martinsville and finished 10th or better in 16 of those races.
- Kyle Larson has won three consecutive starts in the playoffs, and has secured his spot in the final four in Phoenix next week. Larson has no wins and just two top-5 finishes in 13 Cup starts at Martinsville.
Who is going to win the 2021 Xfinity 500?
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
KYLE LARSON (+500) has some rather high odds despite posting three straight Cup starts at Charlotte, Texas and Kansas. While we noted his struggles at Martinsville above, it should be noted he also struggled mightily in Kansas and that didn’t preclude him from winning. He is just so red-hot right now that you can’t bet against him.
If someone is going to derail his chances, it’s likely going to be TRUEX JR. (+450), the chalk this week. He has three victories in his last four starts at the Virginia paper clip. In 31 career Cup starts he has eight top-5 runs and 14 top-10 showings with 1,007 laps.
Virginia native HAMLIN (+600) is also a strong play. He leads all drivers with a 9.71 AFP, and 16 top-5 finishes with 1,884 laps led in his 31 Cup starts.
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Long-shot bets for the 2021 Xfinity 500
If you’re looking for a good long-shot bet, veteran driver KURT BUSCH (+4000) could crash the party in Martinsville. He has a pair of victories with nine top-10 showings and 487 laps led in 42 career Cup starts, although his 19.8 AFP isn’t great.
CHRISTOPHER BELL (+2000) is also worth a small-unit play. He has just three Cup starts under his belt at Martinsville, finishing seventh, 15th and 28th, posting a 16.67 AFP to rank 11th among all active drivers.
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