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The Valero Texas Open is the final opportunity for PGA Tour pros to tune-up for the 2021 Masters Tournament, and is an opportunity for others to grab one of the final remaining invitations to Augusta National Golf Club. Below, we’ll look for the best value bets in the 2021 Valero Texas Open odds, with tournament matchups, placings and first-round leader PGA Tour picks and predictions.
TPC San Antonio hosts this tournament once again. Corey Conners, who’s 24th in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings, returns to defend his 2019 title after the 2020 tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Jordan Spieth (+1200) is the pre-tournament betting favorite after Dustin Johnson withdrew Monday afternoon ahead of his Masters title defense.
Let’s look for some value bets, as this is typically one of the most wide-open events on the PGA Tour schedule with motivation being a question for many of the biggest names in the field each year.
2021 Valero Texas Open: Matchups
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 12:29 p.m. ET.
Jordan Spieth vs Tony Finau (-105)
Finau is a slight underdog in this tournament matchup despite being the top-ranked golfer in the field following Johnson’s exit. Spieth has more experience at TPC San Antonio, including a runner-up finish in 2015, but he has played here just once in the last four runnings with a T-30 finish in 2019.
Finau, who has four top-10 finishes in eight events this year, is the better of the two in Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Off-the-Tee for the 2020-21 season.
Abraham Ancer vs. Corey Conners (-110)
This is an evenly-priced line between the reigning champ and Golfweek’s 23rd-ranked golfer. Conners has been in the better 2021 form with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship.
His short game is also much improved from 2019 when he was top-three in the field in SG: Approach, SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green.
2021 Valero Texas Open: Placings
Top 5: Charley Hoffman (+650)
Hoffman ranks third in this field with 1.99 strokes gained on the field per round over 40 career rounds played at TPC San Antonio. He won in 2016 and was a runner-up in both 2011 and 2019.
He’s also still in need of a Masters invitation and will be among the most highly motivated this week.
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Top 10: Joel Dahmen (+600)
Dahmen wasn’t extended an invitation to the Masters following his win at last week’s Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship as it was an opposite-field event against much weaker competition than this.
Still, he’s in top form and has plenty of motivation. Get him for a 6-1 payout with a nine-place cushion against the stronger field.
2021 Valero Texas Open: First-round leader
Ryan Moore (+6600)
Moore is second to Conners in this field with 2.53 strokes gained per round at TPC San Antonio over 16 career rounds. He finished third in 2019, seventh in 2018 and T-18 in 2017.
He has missed the cut in four of six events this year, but largely due to erratic putting. He knows these greens well and has had success.
BetMGM has him priced at +6600 to win this event, meaning the House views him as just as likely to hold the 18-hole lead.
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