2021 US Open matchups picks and best bets

Assessing the top matchups for the 2021 US Open, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The 121st US Open starts Thursday morning at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. Groups and tee times for the first two rounds were released Tuesday, and with those come US Open betting matchups. Below, we look at the top 18- and 72-hole matchups for the 2021 US Open, with PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Golf fans were left disappointed when Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka were split up for their opening 36 holes of the tournament.

The defending champion will tee off Thursday at 4:14 p.m. ET alongside Tyler Strafaci and Hideki Matsuyama. Koepka begins his quest for a third US Open title at 10:29 a.m. ET in a group with Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas.

Also see:

2021 US Open first-round matchups (18 holes)

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET.

Collin Morikawa (+188) vs. Justin Thomas (+175) vs. Brooks Koepka (+163)

MORIKAWA (+188) is the pick in this early morning (10:29 a.m. ET) grouping. He leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green for the 2020-21 season and will be able to stick his iron shots close in the softer, easier morning conditions.

He also has the best Round 1 scoring average of the three at 69.93 for the season.

Also see:

Max Homa (+250) vs. Xander Schauffele (+110) vs. Phil Mickelson (+200)

Three California natives are grouped together for the opening two rounds. Mickelson is coming off of his historic PGA Championship win, Homa won The Genesis Invitational in February, and Schauffele is the highest-ranked of the three at No. 2 in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings.

Back MICKELSON (+200) with his edge in experience on Torrey Pines South Course. His 45 rounds played are the most in this field. He also opened last month’s Wells Fargo Championship with the first-round lead with a 7-under-par 64.

Jordan Spieth (+138) vs. Scottie Scheffler (+200) vs. Will Zalatoris (+200)

SCHEFFLER (+200) has a considerable distance advantage over both Spieth and Zalatoris to make him the pick in this afternoon (4:25 p.m. ET) group. The soon-to-be 25-year-old had to withdraw from last year’s US Open, but he tied for eighth at the PGA Championship last month. He leads the Tour in total driving this season.

2021 US Open tournament matchups (72 holes)

Jon Rahm (-175) vs. Dustin Johnson (+140)

This tournament matchup pits Golfweek’s top-ranked golfer in Rahm against Johnson, who’s still No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Rahm is my pick to win this week as the US Open betting favorite but the value on JOHNSON (+140) is far too great to pass up.

Johnson is a two-time major winner while Rahm seeks his first. This should be much closer to a pick ’em.

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Bryson DeChambeau (-125) vs. Brooks Koepka (+100)

We won’t get to see the Twitter rivals play together until Saturday at the earliest, but bettors can still get action via the 72-hole matchup.

Take the value with KOEPKA (+100), a four-time major champ, at even money. He has the advantage in SG: Approach and experience at Torrey Pines against the Tour’s SG: Off-the-Tee leader.

Jordan Spieth (-110) vs. Justin Thomas (-110)

Back THOMAS (-110) with his advantages in driving accuracy and iron play over Spieth. He comes into the week at No. 2 in the OWGR, as well. The thick rough of Torrey Pines and the US Open could cause troubles for Spieth’s reliance on scrambling if he continues to spray his drives.

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