2021 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond odds, picks and prediction

Looking at the odds for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400, with NASCAR odds, picks and predictions.

The NASCAR Cup Series is at Richmond Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400 Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Toyota Owners 400 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions based on the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

2021 Toyota Owners 400: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.

The NASCAR Cup Series is back at the Richmond Raceway with Team Penske driver Brad Keselowski as the defending champ with checkers in the fall race in Sept. 2020.

  • Keselowski’s win at Richmond was a rarity for Ford, as the manufacturer had been to Victory Lane just twice in the past 11 races. Teammate Joey Logano won the spring race in 2017.
  • Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with six checkered flags at Richmond with 18 top-5 finishes and 1,488 laps led in 30 starts, while posting a 6.77 Average-Finish Position (AFP).
  • Virginia native and JGR teammate Denny Hamlin has managed three wins with 13 top-5 finishes across 28 career Richmond starts, posting a 9.25 AFP. He also leads all active drivers with 1,704 laps led.
  • Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick has also been impressive with three wins and 15 top-5 finishes with a 9.74 AFP in 39 career Richmond runs.

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Who is going to win the 2021 Toyota Owners 400?

MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+400), who is coming off the win at Martinsville last week, is the chalk. He has picked up the checkered flag twice in 29 career Richmond starts with a 17.3 AFP.

MTJ swept the 2019 Richmond races, racing to victory from the fifth starting spot in the spring race, and winning from the eighth spot in the fall run. He is on the pole for Sunday’s race.

HAMLIN (+600) will start from the outside of Row 1, and the Chesterfield, Va., native usually shows out in his home state. He has three wins, 13 top-5 runs, 17 top-10 showings and a 9.25 AFP.

Hendrick Motorsports driver CHASE ELLIOTT (+900) goes off from the third spot in the starting grid. He has never won in his 10 starts at Richmond, but he has finished 24th or higher in every one of his runs at the short track. He has three top-5 runs and 36 laps led. He has been a runner-up at this track before, and at this price he is a value.

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2021 Toyota Owners 400 long-shot bets

TYLER REDDICK (+6600) is worth a look after finishing 11th in his Richmond Cup debut last season. In addition, he is still a good play for a TOP-10 FINISH AT +170.

ARIC ALMIROLA (+8000) is worth a roll of the dice at this huge price, too. He has 17 Richmond Cup starts under his belt, finishing with two top-5 runs, six top-10 finishes and a 15.53 AFP. He’s also a value play for a TOP-10 FINISH AT +210. In addition, bet ALMIROLA (-115) in best finish position in a head-to-head matchup vs. Matt DiBenedetto (-115).

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