First-round groups and tee times are set for the PGA Championship at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island in South Carolina. Below, we look at the top 18- and 72-hole matchups for the 2021 PGA Championship, with PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Three-man groups will be starting off the first and 10th tees Thursday morning at 7 a.m. ET. The marquee matchup of Round 1 is the super group of Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka; they’ll start off the 10th tee at 8:33 a.m. ET. They have a combined five PGA Championship titles and all three are among the 2021 PGA Championship betting favorites.
McIlroy has the best odds to win in the 156-man field. He returns to Kiawah Island as the winner of the 2012 PGA Championship. He topped that field by eight strokes at 13-under par.
Also see: 2021 PGA Championship betting guide
2021 PGA Championship first-round matchups (18 holes)
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Rory McIlroy (+138) vs. Justin Thomas (+163) vs. Brooks Koepka (+250)
It’s easy to make a case for anyone in this group. Thomas is the top-ranked of the three by the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings at No. 6 and is second on the PGA Tour in Stokes Gained: Approach this season.
Koepka is a two-time PGA Championship winner, is 19th on Tour this season in driving distance and looked recovered from March’s knee surgery despite missing the cut at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
MCILROY (+138) is the defending course champion, is coming off a win at the Wells Fargo Championship and ranks second for the season in driving distance. Back Rory as a better sand player than Thomas.
Also see:
Tyrrell Hatton (+125) vs. Adam Scott (+170) vs. Rickie Fowler (+260)
There’s great value on HATTON (+125) with Fowler’s public popularity keeping these odds far too tight.
Hatton’s four international wins since 2019 are twice as many as Scott in that time, and Fowler hasn’t won since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open. Hatton is the best of the three in sand save percentage, bogey avoidance and SG: Approach.
Collin Morikawa (+188) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (+150) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (+190)
The reigning champions of the PGA Championship, US Open and Masters are all grouped together, with DECHAMBEAU (+150) being the clear choice.
The Ocean Course is the longest major venue ever at 7,876 yards. DeChambeau is first on Tour in driving distance and in SG: Off-the-Tee. While Morikawa is first in SG: Approach, DeChambeau is the only one of the three gaining strokes on the greens.
2021 PGA Championship tournament matchups (72 holes)
Collin Morikawa (-110) vs. Daniel Berger (-110)
We’ll once again fade Morikawa with few similarities between the Ocean Course and the 2020 PGA Championship venue, TPC Harding Park in San Francisco.
BERGER (-110) is the longer hitter, better putter and better sand player. He’s also sixth on Tour in bogey avoidance and is coming off a T-3 finish at the Byron Nelson with a final round of 8-under-par 64.
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Hideki Matsuyama (-110) vs. Patrick Cantlay (-110)
CANTLAY (-110) is the best bet in this 72-hole matchup over the reigning Masters champ as the much better fit for the course. He’s the only player on Tour averaging at least 0.50 SG: Around-the-Green and Off-the-Tee per round. He’s also seventh in bogey avoidance and 28th in sand save percentage.
Jordan Spieth (-115) vs. Viktor Hovland (-105)
Spieth is looking to complete the career grand slam while HOVLAND (-105) chases his third PGA Tour win and first major. Still, the young Norwegian is the pick for the Ocean Course.
Spieth is the hottest player in golf with one win and six other top-10 finishes through 10 events in 2021, but the harsh winds off of the Atlantic won’t do him and his frequently erratic driver any favors despite the wide fairways. Hovland is fourth on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee per round.
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