With the Midsummer Classic arriving, a three-day hiatus from the MLB schedule gives us a chance to reset our sights on 2021 awards betting. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s odds to win the 2021 NL Cy Young Award with MLB picks and predictions.
New York Mets RHP Jacob deGrom remains the odds-on favorite to win his third Cy Young (2018, 2019) at -1000. DeGrom owns a minuscule 1.08 ERA through 15 starts. In 92 IP, he has allowed just 39 hits and 11 walks while striking out 146 batters.
The right-hander’s odds have dipped to the point where a $100 bet would return a profit of just $10. That’s now out of bounds … but not by much. Below are five other candidates to monitor for value, but consider deGrom at -850 should the price swing back toward Earth.
Also see: AL Cy Young odds, picks and prediction
2021 NL Cy Young Award odds, picks and predictions
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, July 12, at 7:35 p.m. ET.
Milwaukee Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff (+1500)
Woodruff could be in the best position to pounce if there’s is a deGrom injury or second-half slide of some kind. The 28-year-old hurler gives the Brewers a lot of innings (113 1/3 through 18 starts), and he’s an ultra consistent rates-control guy.
It seems he’s always on par with hit, walk, home run and strikeout rates, and that has made for a tremendous first-half 2.06 ERA. Woodruff is strong in third-time-through-the-order situations (.531 OPS allowed) and a weak-hitting NL Central doesn’t hurt.
San Francisco Giants SP Kevin Gausman (+1500)
Gausman’s the No. 1 pitcher for a Giants club thus far upstaging the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. He has been a big-time beneficiary of some generous rates around the margins with a .212 batting average on balls in play, for instance.
However, he gets deep into games (6-plus innings in all but three outings so far) and has been shut-down dominant against right-handed batters with a .395 opponent OPS.
Philadelphia Phillies SP Zack Wheeler (+1800)
The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals (and maybe even the Miami Marlins) are less of contenders than most figured would be the case. Enter the 44-44 Phillies with a chance to make things interesting in the second half.
Leading the Phils on the mound is Wheeler, who has a 2.50 ERA over 2020 and ’21 combined. Over these last two seasons, the former Mets starter has gotten more ground balls (49.7% in 2021) while improving his control and getting more velocity on his fastball.
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San Diego Padres SP Joe Musgrove (+7000)
Musgrove doesn’t bring the name recognition of some of his pitching peers in Southern California, but the 28-year-old righty is enjoying a career year.
His bat-missing ability has taken a leap forward the last two years: swinging strikes are feeding a 10.6 K/9 figure thus far. As with other NL West hurlers here, he has the potential to pitch in some big pennant race games in September.
Cincinnati Reds SP Tyler Mahle (+10000)
Cincinnati is in a similar boat to that of the Phillies as a surprise second-place team at the break. The Reds have been buoyed by the strong pitching of Mahle who owns a 3.68 ERA despite battling some home run to fly ball issues.
His problems have come at home, and if he can recapture the mojo of a 3.03 home-yard ERA of 2020, he’ll be relevant in voters’ minds come September.
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