History figures to be made Thursday with the fourth pick in the NFL Draft.
One way or the other.
It could be the first time quarterbacks are selected with the first four picks, or we could see a tight end selected at the highest position in common draft history (since 1967).
The Atlanta Falcons, owners of that fourth pick, currently hold the cards (or draft card). And Florida standout Kyle Pitts is the tight end who could make history.
So let’s dive into the 2021 draft odds and betting lines for Pitts, who has a BetMGM draft position Over/Under of 5.5 and listed in several other intriguing proposition wagers on the board.
NFL Draft odds: Kyle Pitts draft position
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at noon ET.
Quarterbacks are all but locked into the first three picks — held by the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers — but the Falcons seem unlikely to follow suit with QB Matt Ryan under contract for three more seasons.
A trade then, of course, comes into play but, while there has been talk of the Falcons dealing the fourth pick, the chances seemed to have cooled with teams seemingly content to let QBs Justin Fields and Trey Lance (most likely) slide a few spots.
The Cincinnati Bengals (fifth overall pick) and Miami Dolphins (sixth) don’t need a QB, and trading up into the seventh (Detroit Lions) or eighth spot (Carolina Panthers) would be a lot less cost-prohibitive than moving up to No. 4.
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So if not a quarterback at No. 4, why Pitts?
Quite simply, it’s not just because he’s the top-rated tight end in the 2021 draft. Pitts is a generational tight end talent who’s ranked behind only locked-in No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence on esteemed draft analyst Mel Kiper’s Big Board.
In addition, Kiper says the hyper-athletic, wide receiver-esque Pitts is the best NFL tight end prospect he’s ever graded since beginning to hand them out in the late 1970s.
That makes Pitts a draft unicorn and a real threat to usurp Riley Odoms (No. 5 overall to the Denver Broncos in 1972) as the highest drafted tight end since ’67. Odoms is the only tight end selected in the common draft era’s top five and one of the 14 at his position selected in the top 10 during that 53-year span.
If the Falcons somehow bypass Pitts, the Bengals, owners of No. 5 pick — and even more tight end needy — are sure to pounce.
Wagering recommendation
While Pitts is a slam dunk to be the first tight end drafted, few of us have the bankroll to pay the crazy -10000 juice on that wager.
It’s the same deal with Pitts -5000 as a top-10 pick, and even the Falcons to select a tight end with their first pick is steep at -350.
Going with Pitts under his draft position of 5.5 still costs -300, but instead go to the “Other” tab on the BetMGM draft wagering page and you can find Pitts at -225 to be a top five pick.
So, it’s the same pick at reduced juice. That’s your play on Pitts to make draft history Thursday.
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