There is a belief that, for some reason, when the San Francisco 49ers make a pick at No. 3 that somehow QBs coming off the board are going to stop.
I’m pretty sure that’s not happening, but I can almost guarantee if Trey Lance is on the board after the third pick, the run won’t stop.
Let’s dive in on Lance’s NFL Draft odds and betting lines.
NFL Draft odds: QB Trey Lance draft position
- Over 6.5: +150
- Under 6.5: -190
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:38 a.m. ET.
The specter of guys like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, who were viewed as athletes with a high upside, but not worthy of being taken early, has changed how risk-takers in the league value potential.
Fans remember when you pass on a franchise QB. Lance has the pure athleticism to thrive in almost any system with strong coaching and, despite not playing elite competition, has a higher ceiling than any quarterback that will be on the board when San Francisco is on the clock at No. 3 – where I have them making Lance their pick.
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Even if San Francisco takes Mac Jones (the wrong move) or Justin Fields at No. 3, it doesn’t mean you lose this bet by taking the UNDER 6.5 (-190).
You still have three more picks to go that can take you to the pay window – and the scenarios look great.
Atlanta Falcons are financially tied into Matt Ryan for the next two seasons, which could lead them to envision Lance as the long-term answer to a stable QB future.
If Lance makes it past Atlanta, the critical pick is the Miami Dolphins at No. 6. The Dolphins have already traded from No. 3 to No. 12 back up to No. 6.
If Lance is still on the board at No. 7, the Detroit Lions will get the S.O.D. (Steal of the Draft).
At least one team with an unsettled long-term QB situation will be willing to make the bold jump to dance with Miami and give them more draft capital.
Detroit might throw them one of their third-rounders just to flip-flop and seal the deal.
I love the UNDER 6.5 (-190) on this one for too many reasons – starting with the 49ers taking him at No. 3 and ending the speculation.
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