Predicting the exact first three picks of the NFL Draft typically is moderately challenging.
And even the favored 1-2-3 combo usually would present a plus-payout wagering opportunity.
But then we have the 2021 draft, where the only real question in the top three is who will be the third quarterback selected by the San Francisco 49ers with QBs Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Zach Wilson (New York Jets) essentially locked in with the first two selections.
So let’s dive into the 2021 draft odds and betting lines. BetMGM currently offers 133 different options for its Exact Outcome Picks 1-3 wager, with the 1st Lawrence/2nd Wilson/3rd Mac Jones the favorite at -190. New to sports betting? Odds of -190 imply 65.52% probability, or 10/19 fractional odds. Every $10 bet returns $5.26 profit if correct.
NFL Draft odds: Exact order of first three picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:50 p.m. ET.
So -190?
Yep.
Lawrence reportedly already has received a copy of the Jaguars’ playbook and is listed with -10000 odds to go first overall.
The Jets, meanwhile, already dealt QB Sam Darnold, the 2018 third-overall pick, to the Carolina Panthers this spring, and have had Wilson in for a physical. He’s listed at a hefty -2500 to go second overall.
That leaves the Niners at No. 3, and Alabama’s Jones is a solid favorite at -200. QBs Trey Lance (+210) and Justin Fields (+400) are the other two front-runners before you hit the longshots, starting with tight end Kyle Pitts at +2200.
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Fields, a two-year starter at Ohio State after transferring from Georgia, was the presumed target for the 49ers as soon as the trade with the Miami Dolphins hit the headlines in late March. But starting not long after with a report by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Jones — the rapidly rising one-year starter from national champion Alabama — was reported to be the Niners’ impetus in moving from No. 12 up to No. 3.
Plenty of coy interviews, subterfuge and conflicting rumors over the third pick have followed, though, over the last few weeks with Fields and Lance jumping into the favorite’s seat at times, but Jones is back as the clear clubhouse leader with draft week upon us.
The San Francisco secrecy has been a bit puzzling as there have been next to no rumblings of any team trading with the Jets or Jags to jump ahead of the Niners and selecting a quarterback other than Lawrence or Wilson.
Perhaps there’s been some strong league encouragement, though, to keep the pick under wraps and keep interest in Thursday night’s first round high.
NFL Draft betting recommendation
Initially, the thought of the Niners essentially trading three first-round picks to move up nine spots and select Jones, a borderline first-round prospect at the start of the year, seemed to be absurd.
But the reports and rumors have more or less held steady, and sharp analysts have pointed out that Jones’ skill set does compare rather favorably to the NFL QBs (Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo and even Matt Schaub) 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has had the most success with.
Fields was my initial projection for No. 3 with the reports that the Niners were determined to hold on to Garoppolo for 2021, giving the raw rookie time to develop. But I’m now buying the Jones narrative, and the recommendation here is to lay the juice and go with the chalk option here with Lawrence-Wilson-Jones at -190.
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