The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400 Sunday. The green flag is set to drop at approximately 3:05 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.
Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick swept the races in a doubleheader weekend last season at MIS, winning from the third starting spot in the Saturday race and the 20th starting spot in the Sunday run.
2021 FireKeepers Casino 400: What you need to know
- Harvick has won three straight and four of the last five NASCAR Cup Series races in Michigan.
- Ford has been the dominant manufacturer in the Irish Hills, claiming six consecutive checkered flags.
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson might be the biggest threat to the Ford dominance, as he rattled off three straight wins at MIS from Aug. 28, 2016 to Aug. 13, 2017, in a Chevrolet.
- Hendrick’s Chase Elliott leads all active drivers with a 7.70 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 10 career Cup starts in Michigan, although he is still searching for his first win at the track.
- Harvick leads all active drivers with five wins, while Kurt Busch, Larson and Penske’s Joey Logano have three checkered flags apiece.
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Who is going to win the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400?
Odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
LARSON (+270) is the chalk for Sunday’s race, as he makes his return to a track where he has been very comfortable over the years. He has 12 career Cup Series starts, with three wins, five top-5 finishes and six top-10 runs with a 12.42 AFP while leading 150 laps. Larson also starts from the top spot.
LOGANO (+1300) has some slightly longer odds, but he is always a good bet in the Irish Hills. The driver of the No. 22 machine has posted three wins at the track, and he has a stellar 11.71 AFP which is third-best among all active drivers. His 590 laps led is second-best among active drivers only to Harvick (699). He goes off 19th Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (+1300) starts from the 20th position Sunday, which is the same spot in the grid from which Harvick posted a win at MIS last summer. The Michigan native has never won at his home track, but he has been a runner-up. He has a solid 12.70 AFP with 252 laps led, seven top-five runs and 12 top-10 finishes in 23 career Cup starts.
Long-shot bets and props for the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400
A big-time long shot is RYAN NEWMAN (+10000), although he has won twice at this track. In fact, in 39 career Cup starts he has six top-five finishes, 10 top-10 runs and 125 laps led with a strong 16.26 AFP.
While Newman to win is worth only a small-unit bet, even just a $1, NEWMAN TOP 10 FINISH (+500) is still quite a value, and much more realistic than a win.
KURT BUSCH TOP 10 FINISH (-120) is also a very good value at near even-money. He has three wins at the track, and he had led 496 laps in his 40 career Cup Series starts at MIS. The elder Busch has 16 top-10 finishes in those starts, equating to 40% of his runs.
I also feel very good about both KESELOWSKI TOP 5 FINISH (+220) and LOGANO TOP 5 FINISH (+220), as each gives you a nice chance to double up your initial wager.
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