It’s rare that an otherwise consistently selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some recognizable names just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.
“Bust” is a loaded term that isn’t entirely fair, nor is it an accurate reflection of a player’s risk. Furthermore, it’s tough to find a consensus definition. Can an injury create a bust? Is it only a bust situation if the player goes up in flames without an injury? Both? Are busts only early-round selections? You get the point. Regardless of how one defines it, the term is far from perfect.
This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches. Therefore, we’ll focus on “overvalued” in this space. ADP variations between sites are wild this time of the year, and those dramatic differences will be noted below.
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft.
2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players
1) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 3:05 | Bust factor
In Mixon’s four pro seasons, he has finished a full slate just once. The Bengals present an intriguing situation from a volume perspective, but the lack of durability makes it more or less a wash. Even if he stays healthy, Mixon has a suspect offensive line and an offense system intent on throwing the ball to a trio of formidable wideouts. Mixon has yet to reach double-digit touchdowns in a season, and his yardage cap is less than 1,170 yards on the ground. Don’t get hung up on his name value.
2) QB Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans | ADP: 7:09 | Bust factor/overvalued
The receiving corps is relying on a breakthrough from tight end Anthony Firkser, which is reasonable, and serious progress from newcomers Josh Reynolds and Dez Fitzpatrick, a rookie. A.J. Brown is a legit WR1, and Derrick Henry helps make play-action passing dangerous, but he is poised for a setback statistically and comes with inflated injury concern. Tannehill is being drafted ahead of Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and a handful of other quarterbacks with better risk-reward ratios. Some services place his ADP in the ninth round, which is too high, as well.
3) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants | ADP: 6:11 | Bust factor
The former Detroit Lion cashed in on one strong season — which wasn’t even last year — and a decent campaign the year before. He suffers a serious drop-off at quarterback by entering an offense led by Daniel Jones, a signal-caller coming off of a drastic regression in his second season. Jones is on thin ice, but who is going to replace him if the third-year passer doesn’t bounce back? Mike Glennon is the current answer, which should be startling. Golladay, with one full season to his credit, comes with more downside than likely reward.
4) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants | ADP: 10:11 | Overvalued
So he finally finished a full season and what did gamers get to show for it? One measly touchdown. Now, the Giants have improved the weaponry around Engram to make him even less of a focus, and the backfield should see a healthy Saquon Barkley’s return to gobble up checkdowns from the arm of a work-in-progress quarterback. While the cost of investment isn’t horrific, the number of better tight end options going later than Engram is nearly 10 players.
5) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons | ADP: 4:12 | Overvalued
Don’t get me wrong, Pitts is the top rookie tight end talent in recent memory. He is physically capable of doing things players at his position shouldn’t be capable of accomplishing. And he gets a huge boost in targets if Julio Jones is indeed out of Atlanta. That said, Pitts is still a rookie at a position that typically takes time to effectively contribute in fantasy. He is currently going as TE4 in redraft leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft. This excludes keeper leagues, so his placement is crazy high. Looking at the past decade of rookie tight ends to finish in the top 25 of PPR point-earners, history isn’t on his side for a monster year. The average stat line: 54 targets, 35 receptions, 401 yards, 3.6 touchdowns, 96.6 PPR points. Evan Engram’s 2017 season was by far the most productive, logging 64-722-6 on 115 looks (173.6 PPR points). The next four best PPR producers: Hunter Henry (131.8 points), Dwayne Allen (115.3), Jordan Reed (114.7) and Noah Fant (113.8). The average of those five: 129.8, which was TE17 last year.
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6) TE Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins | ADP: 9:05 | Overvalued
Historically, tight ends rarely have mattered in a Chan Gailey offense, and now the Dolphins have added a pair of playmaking receivers to interfere with Gesicki’s target count. The Penn State product picked up the pace late last year after a rocky start, but much of his success can be boiled down to three games, one of which came with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. While entering the final year of his deal could add some incentive, Gesicki still is reliant on a so-so quarterback situation in an offense that boasts no silver lining for his odds of a consistently useful campaign.
7) RB Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 8:05 | Bust factor
Between injury history, a pass-happy offense, and two other very capable running backs, Fournette could be a lineup paperweight in 2021. The ADP isn’t so much a problem, so it’s not like he presents an overreach, but there’s so much working against him. Fournette’s saving grace in recent seasons has been his receiving chops. Running back Giovani Bernard will cut into that area of his game, and then there’s the chance of losing short-yardage touchdowns to Ronald Jones, which kneecaps Fournette’s two main ways of contributing. Only two teams (PIT, JAC) ran at a lower percentage of their overall offensive snaps. At this point, Lombardi Lenny is merely roster depth for the occasional spot start.
8) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 5:03 | Overvalued
Some of his placement is still the proximity to the NFL draft and its natural hype effect on rookies. Face it, fantasy owners love themselves the newest shiny toy, and Chase is in that category. He hasn’t played since 2019, which is possibly benign, but it’s, at a minimum, not a plus. The Bengals have two other capable receivers in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and Mixon is a respectable receiver out of the backfield. Chase is reunited with Joe Burrow (knee), so there’s that going for him, but he ultimately is a rookie and also has to fight the rust factor. The LSU standout eventually will be a fantasy stud, although there should be some healthy skepticism as to how effective he’ll be as a rookie — especially when the price tag is so lofty at this current time. Chase’s ADP ranges between Rounds 5 and 10 most of the time, which is bonkers. Anything earlier than Round 8 is way too soon in a single-year league.
9) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 5:06 | Overvalued
This one really could go either way, so take it with a grain of salt. The main idea of including Evans here is the wealth of targets around him. Presume Chris Godwin stays healthy all year, and Antonio Brown enters with a potential to play a full season, too. What will that do to Evans’ numbers? He thrived by finding the end zone a career-high 13 times last year. His yardage (1,006) and receptions (70) were the second-lowest marks of his career for each stat. Those dips were with Godwin and AB missing a combined 12 games. Rob Gronkowski also was slow to get rolling. The Bucs added pass-grabbing RB Giovani Bernard, and TE O.J. Howard returns from injury. The primary reason to hold out hope Evans will indeed reach his ADP in relation to production is his scoring prowess. He has, though, scored eight or fewer TDs in four of his seven seasons, so it’s not like Evans is a total lock for finding paydirt a dozen times.
10) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans | ADP: 8:02 | Bust factor
The obvious looming legal concerns have sent his draft stock tumbling, which is no surprise. Watson also wants out of town, further clouding his situation. Timing could very well be on his side, unless the NFL steps in to implement discipline ahead of the 20-plus impending lawsuits being adjudicated. There’s always the chance it all could be settled ahead of time, although it appears it all will be going to court in the fall. Presuming he plays, and for the Texans, Watson will be tasked with carrying the offense in a new system devoid of dynamic receivers, outside of veteran Brandin Cooks. The receiving corps has oft-injured Randall Cobb manning the slot, and veteran Chris Conley was added to compete with Keke Coutee for a top-three spot. Nico Collins comes aboard after being drafted in Round 3, and his 6-foot-5 frame presents a target in the red zone. Will Fuller’s defection leaves a glaring hole in this passing game: a consistent deep threat. Houston added running backs Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to work in alongside David Johnson, suggesting an increased emphasis on the ground game.