The NASCAR Cup Series heads down to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400 at 3 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 NASCAR odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
2021 Dixie Vodka 400: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin is the defending champ at this race, taking the checkered flag from the pole position last season. He was the first winner from the pole at HMS since Kurt Busch won the 2002 Ford 400 at the track.
- Toyota has won three of the past four races at this track, and a Toyota has been to Victory Lane in five of the past eight races at Homestead-Miami, with one win by Ford and two by Chevrolet during the eight-year span.
- Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick heads into this one with one win, 11 Top 5s, 17 Top 10s and 414 laps led in 20 career starts at this track, leading all drivers with a 7.4 Average-Finish Position (AFP).
- Hamlin leads all active drivers with three victories at Homestead, followed by teammate Kyle Busch with two checkered flags in his 16 career HMS starts. JGR’s Martin Truex Jr. also has one win and a 10.3 AFP in his 16 career starts.
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Who is going to win the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400?
HAMLIN (+500) is the chalky play, leading all active drivers with three wins at the track. He heads into this one with eight consecutive top-10 runs, and he has victories in two of his past eight starts at the track since Nov. 2013.
A JGR car will be the best bet this weekend. Besides Hamlin, KYLE BUSCH (+1000) has been sixth or better in each of his past six starts at the track, while TRUEX JR. (+700) has been second or better in three of his past four starts at HMS with one win.
Another JGR car to watch is the No. 20 of CHRISTOPHER BELL (+2500). He finished eighth in his only career start in the NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead last season, and he is coming in with a ton of momentum after winning last week on the Daytona road course.
Looking outside of the JGR stable of cars, Hendrick’s CHASE ELLIOTT (+550) was a runner-up last season at this track. He has been 11th or better in four of his five career starts at Homestead, posting an 8.0 AFP.
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2021 Dixie Vodka 400 long-shot bet
AUSTIN DILLON (+4000) is usually best on superspeedways, but he has been a quick learner at Homestead-Miami Speedway and the tri-oval. He has posted a fantastic 12.6 AFP in his seven career starts with two top-10 showings. He has improved in every one of his starts at the track, too, going from 25th to 14th to 12th to 11th (twice) to eighth and then to seventh last season.
BUBBA WALLACE (+6000) of 23XI Racing is worth a roll of the dice at this price tag. Hey, we’ve had two first-time winners through the first two NASCAR Cup Series races. So why not Bubba this week?
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