The NASCAR Cup Series is at the Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Coca-Cola 600 Sunday for a green flag at 6:05 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Coca-Cola 600 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions based on the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.
2021 Coca-Cola 600: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:29 a.m. ET.
It’s time for the longest race of the NASCAR Cup Series season, the 600-mile race with 400 laps on the 1.5-mile oval in Concord, N.C., with the race broken up into four 100-lap stages.
- Penske Racing’s Brad Keselowski won last season’s Coca-Cola 600, breaking up a dominant run by Toyota by winning in his Ford. Toyota had won five of the previous six Memorial Day races, with Chevy in Victory Lane in May 2017. In fact, Keselowski’s win in the 600 was Ford’s first checkered flag in the long race since Mark Martin won May 26, 2002.
- Keselowski’s teammate Joey Logano leads all drivers with a 12.2 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 22 career Cup series races at Charlotte. He has a win, six top-5 runs and 11 top-10 finishes with 331 laps led.
- Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin has never won at Charlotte, but he has a 12.5 AFP, which is second only to Logano, in 29 career Cup starts. Hamlin has finished fifth or better on 10 occasions, leading 377 laps at the track on the oval setup.
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Who is going to win the 2021 Coca-Cola 600?
KYLE LARSON (+350) is the chalk at Charlotte, mainly because he goes off from the pole position Sunday evening. He rolled up a best speed of 180.282 mph, a tick ahead of Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at 180.240 mph. Larson has an 18.9 AFP in 11 Cup starts with one top-5 showing at Charlotte, so go lightly. There are much better values to be had.
CHASE ELLIOTT (+500) starts third Sunday, and he has a win in his career at Charlotte. In fact, he has finished fifth or better in 44.4% of his career starts at the track, so he is a much better value than Larson, if you’re trying to decide between the two.
In fact, there is still value to be had taking ELLIOTT FOR A TOP-3 (+135) finish. Even ELLIOTT FOR A TOP 5 (-135) is not a bad wager, either.
KEVIN HARVICK (+1200) is a huge value play at this price. He is tied with MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+650) among active drivers with three career Cup victories in Charlotte. Happy has a 15.0 AFP with nine top-5 runs and half of his 38 career starts have resulted in a top 10.
HARVICK FOR A TOP 5 (+175) is good play with a chance to nearly double up.
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2021 Coca-Cola 600 long-shot and matchup bets
STENHOUSE JR. (+5000) is worth a roll of the dice for a small-unit play to win outright. He has zero wins at Charlotte in 16 career Cup starts, but he has a respectable 17.4 AFP. Stenhouse starts on the outside of Row 1 after turning a best speed of 180.240 mph in qualifying.
STENHOUSE JR. FOR A TOP-5 (+700) finish might be a much better play with some huge value, and STENHOUSE FOR A TOP 10 (+140) is still plus-money, and not a bad option.
ROSS CHASTAIN FOR A TOP 10 (+425) is a value play, too. He recorded a 10th at COTA last weekend, and he turned a best speed of 179.569 mph in qualifying here. He’ll go off from the 10th position.
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