We all have our opinions on how the Steelers 2020 season will go — some of us are more optimistic than others.
Pro Football Focus published a best- and worst-case scenarios for every NFL team ahead of the 2020 season article after performing super-secret season simulations.
Here’s the PFF take on the Steelers:
10th percentile outcome: 5-11
How they get there: Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the same guy upon his return. Either he is rendered unavailable by another injury or he continues the downward trend we saw from 2017 (86.5 PFF grade) to 2018 (78.2 PFF grade). In both cases, this offense is in trouble. The Steelers would be hard-pressed to field a worse offense than their 2019 unit — a group that ranked dead last in expected points added per play — but even more things going wrong could lead to a result like this. The turnovers they secured in bunches in 2019 aren’t there anymore, and their success in close games swings in the opposite direction.90th percentile outcome: 10-6
How they get there: Roethlisberger’s return makes this offense viable again, which is all it needs to be with one of the better defenses in the NFL returning. The pass rush may have lost Javon Hargrave, but it returns a healthy Stephon Tuitt — who was enjoying a tremendous start to his 2019 season before going down with an injury. It’s a pass rush that led the NFL in team pressure rate last season. The secondary, anchored by Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joe Haden and Steven Nelson, continues to build on its strong play, and very few teams have much success against the unit as a whole.
The 10th percentile is at the pretty low end, so a lot would have to go wrong for the Steelers’ season to result in 5-11. Everything that could go wrong in 2019 pretty much did, and they still ended up at 8-8.
In my view, the worst-case scenario for the Steelers would be 7-9 and, even then, that’s if Big Ben doesn’t return to 80 percent. I think the 10-6 outcome is realistically where they’ll end up. The Steelers have a tough schedule with games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and the Tennesse Titans — all teams I predict they will lose close games to.
We’d love to read your thoughts on the Steelers’ best- and worst-case scenarios in the comments below.
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