AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
2019 record: 12-4 (+143 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 2nd / Run: 14th)
Defensive DVOA: 14th (Pass: 6th / Run: 29th)
Added: RG Kelechi Osemele
Lost: CB Kendall Fuller, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff (Opt out)
Opt-outs: OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff and RB Damien Williams
Key Rookies: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU (32nd); LB Willie Gay Jr., Mississippi State (63rd); OT Lucas Niang, TCU (96th)
Over-under: 11.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 10.6 wins
Offense
- We’re probably at the point where we can just pencil the Chiefs in as division champs. Even last year with Mahomes missing games and being hobbled for others, they won 12 games. There’s no reason to suspect any of their success on either side of the ball was flukey and they retained basically everyone.
- The only real change is on the offensive line with Duvernay-Tardiff being replaced by former all-pro guard Kelechi Osemele, which may actually be an upgrade in the run game, which is the one area where the Chiefs struggled. Especially in the red zone, suggesting that the offense could be even better. The line was banged up a lot last year, so better health should lead to improvements. Rookie Lucas Niang opted out, too.
- It looked like Sammy Watkins was gone but the Chiefs restructured him so the supporting cast is all back. Mecole Hardman is the one player to watch. If he takes a second-year leap, defenses don’t have a chance. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Damien Williams will split snaps at running back.
Defense
- The defensive line remains the same with Chris Jones being retained. Getting a full, healthy season from Frank Clark, who came on down the stretch after a rough start to his Chiefs career, should help the pass rush, which was inconsistent at best last season.
- Kansas City added some much-needed speed to what was a bad linebacker corps by drafting Willie Gay out of Mississipi State.
- The secondary will miss Breshad Breeland for four-games due to suspension and lost Kendall Fuller, but the safety pairing of Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill should offer enough cover for an undermanned cornerback group.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Defensive depth
Biggest strength: Patrick Mahomes
Player who needs to make the leap: Any of the young defensive linemen
Floor/ceiling: 10-15 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Los Angeles Chargers
2019 record: 5-11 (-8 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 12th (Pass: 9th / Run: 24th)
Defensive DVOA: 21st (Pass: 20th / Run: 25th)
Added: CB Chris Harris Jr., DT Linval Joseph, OT Bryan Bulaga, OG Trai Turner, OG Ryan Groy
Lost: QB Philip Rivers, OT Russell Okung, RB Melvin Gordon
Injuries: Derwin James (season)
Key rookies: QB Justin Herbert, Oregon (6th); LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (23rd); RB Joshua Kelley, UCLA (112th)
Regression alert! 2-4 in coin flip games; -3 pythagorean wins; 3rd in Adjusted Games Lost; T32nd in turnover margin; 32nd in fumble recovery percentage
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.5 wins
Offense
- The quarterback situation is a question mark (without any satisfying answers) but there are so many skill players to work with — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler — that playing quarterback should be a bit easier. Tyrod Taylor will get the first crack at it, but it’s only a matter of time before Justin Herbert sees the field. At least that should be the plan.
- The offensive line could actually be good for the first time in what feels like forever — if you just close your eyes when you get to left tackle on the depth chart. Brian Bulaga and Trai Turner were brought in to solidify the right side. Mike Pouncey is the center and a good one when he’s not hurt. Dan Feeny and Forrest Lamp will spar for snaps at left guard. Sam Tevi is not good but he’s starting at left tackle after the team flirted with the idea of moving Lamp there.
- The line might be healthier, and therefore better, but the sack numbers probably won’t reflect it with Philip Rivers being replaced by Tylor and Herbert.
Defense
- The pass rush should be great if Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are healthy. Linval Joseph is old but an upgrade over the even older Brandon Mebane. Jerry Tillery was not good as a rookie but did look good at Notre Dame, so there’s still hope.
- Linebacker will probably be the weak spot with rookie Kenneth Murray and Bengals castoff/missed tackle machine Nick Vigil holding things down as the nickel pair. Derwin James could have made up for their deficiencies, but he was injured because the Chargers can’t have anything nice.
- The secondary is considered to be the deepest in the league, but its reputation is largely based on how it’s performed with James on the field. Chris Harris is old, same goes for Casey Hayward. It’s not a given that this is a strength for them.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Quarterback
Biggest strength: Pass rush
Player who needs to make the leap: Nasir Adderly
Floor/ceiling: 5-9 wins
Win total over-under: Under
Denver Broncos
2019 record: 7-9 (-34 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 27th / Run: 19th)
Defensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 14th / Run: 16th)
New coaches: Pat Shurmur, Offensive coordinator
Added: DT Jurrell Casey, CB A.J. Bouye, G Graham Glasgow, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Nick Vannett
Lost: CB Chris Harris Jr., C Connor McGovern, DE Derek Wolfe
Opt-outs: OT Ja’Wuan James and DT Kyle Peko
Key Rookies: WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (15th); WR KJ Hamler, Penn State (46th); CB Michael Ojemudia, Iowa (77th); C Lloyd Cushenberry, LSU (83rd); DT McTelvin Agim, Arkansas (93rd)
Regression alert! 2-4 in coin flip games
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders win projection: 7.0 wins
Offense
- Drew Lock has plenty of talent around him, but Denver is still banking on a lot of young dudes. Cortland Sutton is clearly a star, but we have no idea what they’re going to get from Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, though both have produced highlight training camp videos. TE Noah Fant showed flashes as a rookie and could develop into a Pro Bowl-level player as soon as this year.
A lot of Lock’s production came in the quick game, which wasn’t seen as his thing coming out of college. His efficiency fell off a cliff the longer he held the ball. That will need to change if the Broncos are going to get the most out of this supporting cast. - The Broncos have a solid interior offensive line with Dalton Risner, Graham Glasgow and rookie Lloyd Cushenberry but the tackle position is a mess. Garrett Bolles is physically gifted but can’t stop drawing flags. Ja’Wuan James opted out, leaving Elijah Wilkinson to take the job instead of challenging for Bolles’ spot on the left. Veteran Demar Dotson will compete for the starting right tackle job.
Defense
- Von Miller is starting to show some signs decline but he’s still very productive. And Bradley Chubb is coming back after missing his second year following an impressive rookie campaign. The knee injury is still giving him problems and he’ll apparently be on a pitch count to start the season. Jurrell Casey is still a good player but just turned in 30 and isn’t a massive upgrade over the departing Derek Wolfe.
- Secondary looks like a strength on paper. A.J. Bouye was a low-risk/high-reward acquisition from Jacksonville. Rookie Michael Ojemudia produced some good tape at Iowa. And Bryce Callahan returns to the nickel spot in Fangio’s defense after missing his first season in Denver with a foot injury.
- After the reliable-but-not exciting Todd Davis was cut, it’s Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson. Both are young, and therefore have potential, but this looks like the weak link on the defense.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Reliance on youth
Biggest strength: Playmakers
Player who needs to make the leap: Drew Lock
Floor/ceiling: 5-10 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Las Vegas Raiders
2019 record: 7-9 (-106 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 7th / Run: 21st)
Defensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 30th / Run: 21st)
Added: LB Cory Littleton, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, QB Marcus Mariota, TE Jason Witten, S Jeff Heath, EDGE Carl Nassib, WR Nelson Agholor
Lost: S Karl Joseph, CB Daryl Worley
Injuries: WR Tyrell Williams (season)
Opt-outs: LB Ukeme Eligwe, DE Jeremiah Valoaga and CB D.J. Killings
Key Rookies: WR Henry Ruggs III, Alabama (12th); CB Damon Arnette, Ohio State (19th); WR Bryan Edwards, South Carolina (81st)
Regression alert! +2 pythagorean wins
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.7 wins
- Given Derek Carr’s sensitivity to pressure, the passing game’s success will be tied directly to the play of the offensive line. It looks quite good on paper. LT Kolton Miller, the one cheap player on the roster (though he was a first-round pick) improved after a bad rookie season. Richie Incognito is an awful human but good football player. Rodney Hudson is old but one of the smartest centers in the league. Gabe Jackson is a good starter and the same goes for the expensive Trent Brown, whose biggest issue is staying healthy.
- With Tyrell Williams out for the year, it’s on Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs to produce on the perimeter, which is concerning. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow do provide some play-making inside, though Renfrow is just a possession receiver and Waller could be a one-hit wonder. Josh Jacobs is the best player on the offense, but he’s also a running back, so…
Defense
- The Raiders are still trying to figure out how to replace Khalil Mack’s production. Clelin Ferrell was not it and started losing snaps at the end of the season. Maxx Crosby surprised as a rookie, but his production is a little flukey and a lot of it came in a few games against bad competition. Maurice Hurst could be a star on the interior.
- The one area where Las Vegas is clearly better is at linebacker after signing Corey Littleton and Nick Kwiatwoksi. Both players are much better in coverage compared to what the Raiders had last year.
- The young secondary is getting a lot of hype out of camp and Prince Amukamara being cut is probably a good sign for the young guys. Damon Arnette produced good tape at Ohio State but his testing numbers raised some huge red flags. Amik Robinson is feisty, undersized rookie who was a cult hero for draft twitter. Trayvon Mullen looked good for a rookie.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up, I guess
Biggest weakness: Pass rush
Biggest strength: Offensive line
Player who needs to make the leap: Clelin Ferrell
Floor/ceiling: 5-11/9-7
Win total over-under: Under
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