NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
2019 record: 13-3 (+169 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 7th (Pass: 8th / Run: 12th)
Defensive DVOA: 2nd (Pass: 2nd / Run: 11th)
Added: LT Trent Williams
Lost: DT DeForest Buckner, WR Emmanuel Sanders, LT Joe Staley
Injuries: WR Jalen Hurd (season)
Opt-outs: WR Travis Benjamin
Key Rookies: DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina (14th); WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (25th)
Regression alert! 7-3 coin flip games; 6th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 10.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.4 wins
Offense
- Given the question marks at receiver, Jimmy Garoppolo needs to evolve as a passer if the 49ers are going to take a step back after taking a giant step forward in 2019. The two areas where he needs to show the most growth: Throwing the ball to the perimeter and decision making. Garoppolo is still relatively young (at least in terms of on-field experience) so there is still hope.
- Emmanuel Sanders was the big loss on offense and puts pressure on Brandon Aiyuk to perform from Day 1 Kendrick Bourne is underrated and Dante Pettis still has talent but neither are a savior for this group. Deebo Samuel may have to take on the No. 1 receiver role after serving as more of a swiss-army knife role last year. If Kyle Shanahan can get a healthy season out of Jordan Reed — lol — the deficiencies at receiver may not matter. George Kittle needs some more help than Samuel.
- Joe Staley retired but was replaced by Trent Williams, who’s actually an upgrade and should be healthy after taking the 2019 season off while fighting with the inept Washington front office.
Defense
- The roster purge wasn’t nearly as bad as it was expected to be, thanks in large part to the trade of DeForest Buckner, which opened up cap space. The draft pick they got in return allowed the 49ers to immediately replace him with Javon Kinlaw.
- Everything else is essentially the same. Underrated linebacker Fred Warner was placed on the COVID-19 list but shouldn’t miss more than one week. The secondary remains strong with the ageless Richar Sherman at the No. 1 spot and Emmanual Moseley, now a full-time starter, and slot ace Ka’Waun Williams rounding out the starting group. Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward form one of the best safety pairs in the league.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Receiver
Biggest strength: Defensive line
Player who needs to make the leap: Deebo Samuel
Floor/ceiling: 10-13 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Seattle Seahawks
2019 record: 11-5 (+7 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 5th (Pass: 4th / Run: 6th)
Defensive DVOA: 18th (Pass: 15th / Run: 26th)
Added: TE Greg Olsen, EDGE Bruce Irvin, C B.J. Finney, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Brandon Shell, CB Quinton Dunbar, RB Carlos Hyde, WR Josh Gordon, S Jamal Adams, WR Paul Richardson
Lost: DT Quinton Jefferson, EDGE Ezekiel Ansah, OT Germain Ifedi, OT George Fant, OG Mike Iupati, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney*, C Justin Britt, OG D.J. Fluker
Opt-outs: OG Chance Warmack
Key Rookies: LB Jordyn Brooks, Texas Tech (27th); EDGE Darrell Taylor, Tennessee (48th); OG Damien Lewis, LSU (69th)
Regression alert! 5-1 in coin flip games; +3 pythagorean wins; 27th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 9.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.7 wins
Offense
- This is the most talent Russell Wilson has had to work with in his career. If Greg Olsen is healthy and Josh Gordon is on the field, it’s arguably one of the best supporting casts in the league. Hopefully, this is the year the Seahawks coaching staff let’s Wilson throw the ball around.
- Tackles Germain Ifedi and George Fant are gone, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. They brought in a bunch of mid-level free agents to help fill in the line. Damien Lewis, the rookie guard out of LSU, will eventually earn playing time. Mike Iupati re-signed after a bit of a bounce-back season and should start at left guard. Justin Britt retired, leaving an opening at center that will be filled by Ethan Pocic, another LSU product.
Defense
- The defensive line is devoid of pass rush talent after the Seahawks passed on a number of productive veteran free agents. Jadeveon Clowney returning was really Seattle’s last hope for putting together a reliable pass rush. Now, they’re banking on guys like Benson Mayowa, L.J. Collier and Bruce Irvin to creat pressure. Not good. It’s a good thing they have guys who can cover.
- The secondary was deep even before they traded for Jamal Adams. The trade for Quinton Dunbar and the development of Marquise Blair should allow Seattle to play more nickel sets and a lot more man coverage. It’s not the Legion of Boom but the secondary is the clear strength of this team behind Wilson.
- The linebacker group isn’t far behind with first-round pick Jordyn Brooks joining Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. Cody Barton is a good depth piece who would be a starter for most teams.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Pass rush
Biggest strength: Russell Wilson
Player who needs to make the leap: LJ Collier
Floor/ceiling: 8-11 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Arizona Cardinals
2019 record: 5-10-1 (-81 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 20th / Run: 2nd)
Defensive DVOA: 23rd (Pass: 27th / Run: 12th)
Added: WR DeAndre Hopkins, EDGE Devon Kennard, DT Jordan Phillips, LB De’Vondre Campbell
Lost: RB David Johnson, C A.Q. Shipley
Injuries: CB Robert Alford (season)
Opt-outs: OT Marcus Gilbert
Key Rookies: LB Isaiah Simmons, Clemson (8th); T Josh Jones, Houston (72nd); DT Leki Fotu, Utah (114th)
Regression alert! 1-3-1 in coin flip games
Over-under: 6.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.1 wins
Offense
- Kyler Murray is the key to the team’s turnaround, obviously. He has to stop taking sacks at such a high rate in order to make the leap. Some positive regression in the red zone should give him a statistical boost. As Murray gets more used to NFL speed, his running ability should be more of an asset, as well.
- The Cardinals offensive line finished last in adjusted games lost for a second straight year. If healthy, it’s probably a below-average unit, which is an upgrade. D.J. Humphries is fine-to-good. Justin Pugh is reliable, Mason Cole is a question mark but isn’t going to be any worse than A.Q. Shipley. Right guard J.R. Sweezy is a good run blocker and tackle Kelvin Beachum has experience, which is the best thing we can say about him. Third-round pick Josh Jones, whom a lot of draft experts loved, is not in the mix at right tackle apparently.
- DeAndre Hopkins was the missing piece for the receiver group. He gives the Cardinals an answer vs. man coverage, which they didn’t have last year. It also allows Christian Kirk to settle into the No. 2 role. Andy Isabella needs to break out for this offense to reach its ceiling.
Defense
- Once again, it’s Chandler Jones and just a bunch of guys in the pass rush. Zach Allen does offer some promise as a second-year guy who had some pre-draft fans. The linebacker group is more athletic after drafting Isaiah Simmons, but will he be good at football right away?
- The play of the secondary really comes down to Patrick Peterson who struggled after returning from a PED suspension — never a good sign — but did rebound late with some good games. Robert Alford is missing a second consecutive season due to injury which puts more pressure on Byron Murphy to get up to speed after an underwhelming rookie season.
- Budda Baker is a stud and his coverage “issues” are overblown. He held up well against George Kittle, for instance. He’ll continue to get better. Jalen Thompson is the other safety and played well as a fifth-round rookie.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Pass defense
Biggest strength: Offensive scheme
Player who needs to make the leap: Andy Isabella
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Los Angeles Rams
2019 record: 9-7 (+30 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 13th / Run: 20th)
Defensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 10th / Run: 10th)
New coaches: Brandon Staley, Defensive coordinator; Kevin O’Connell, Offensive coordinator
Added: DT A’Shawn Robinson, EDGE Leonard Floyd
Lost: RB Todd Gurley, WR Brandin Cooks, LB Cory Littleton, EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, S Eric Weddle, EDGE Clay Matthews
Opt-outs: OT Chandler Brewer
Key Rookies: RB Cam Akers, Florida State (52nd); WR Van Jefferson, Florida (57th); EDGE Terrell Lewis, Alabama (84th); S Terrell Burgess, Utah (104th)
Regression alert! 0-4 in coin flip games
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.4 wins
- Jared Goff showed last year that he’s mostly a product of what’s around him. About that…
- The team’s biggest issue last year — the offensive line — doesn’t appear to be improved this year. Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein are the reliable players but neither are without their issues. The interior was not improved at all. Austin Corbett, Brian Allen and Austin Blythe are back and all ranked at the bottom of the league in PFF grade.
- Everything else around the offensive line is basically the same. Cooper Kupp will continue to improve in the slot, but Robert Woods’ best football is probably behind him. Van Jefferson has looked good in camp and was one of the smooth route runners in school.
Defense
- They’re replacing Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews with Leonard Floyd and Samson Ebukam in the starting lineup. That’s a downgrade but at least Aaron Donald is still around to devour offensive lines, so the pass rush should fine.
- Corey Littleton, the team’s best linebacker, was lost because of poor cap management and there is nobody you’ve heard of in line to replace him.
- Jalen Ramsey will lead the secondary and has help in safeties John Johnson and Taylor Rapp. Troy Hill is a good No. 2 corner and Darious Williams isn’t a liability. The secondary could be the strength of the defense. But Wade Phillips is gone.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Offensive line
Biggest strength: Sean McVay
Player who needs to make the leap: Brian Allen
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Under
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