AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
2019 record: 7-9 (-12 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 19th (Pass: 24th / Run: 7th)
Defensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 19th / Run: 19th)
Added: DT DeForest Buckner, QB Philip Rivers, CB Xavier Rhodes
Lost: EDGE Jabaal Sheard, TE Eric Ebron, WR Devin Funchess
Injuries: TE Trey Burton (IR, at least until Week 4), DT Sheldon Day (IR, at least until Week 4), DE Kemoko Turay (PUP, at least until Week 6)
Opt-outs: LB Skai Moore, CB Marvell Tell and S Rolan Milligan
Key rookies: WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC (34th); RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (41st); S Julian Blackmon, Utah (85th)
Regression alert! 2-4 in coin flip games
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.9 wins
Offense
- Philip Rivers was presumed “washed” by a lot of NFL observers, who mostly tuned in just in time to watch him throw a game-ending interception in crunch time. Based on his film, though, Rivers is still a very good quarterback. He’s got a weak arm but it’s not really an issue for him. He’s not Mahomes but his decline is overblown, mostly because of the interceptions. But a lot of those interceptions came when the game was already lost.
- The offensive line returns all five starters for a second straight year. If there’s a weakness it’s on the right side of the line, which had a hard time protecting the passer, but that probably had a lot to do with Jacoby Brissett having the second-highest average-time-to-throw in the league. The ball will come out quicker with Rivers back there, making things easier for the line. This remains one of the league’s best run-blocking units, though its run blocking did slip a bit last season.
- T.Y. Hilton is still T.Y. Hilton but the success of the receiving corps likely comes down to rookie Michael Pittman having a good season. Fortunately for him, Rivers loves his big receivers. It’s a big year for Parris Campbell, who missed a lot of the 2019 season with various injuries: sports hernia, broken hand, fractured foot, and a hamstring injury. And he was just involved in a car accident, which disrupted what was reportedly a good camp for him.
Defense
- The Colts’ biggest strength on defense is the linebacker corps, unfortunately. Not really where you want to be strongest on that side of the ball. Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker and Bobby Okereke is a very good group, though.
- Adding DeForest Buckner to the defensive line should help all of their pass rushers. The 49ers used him as a protection-dictating chess piece and I’m expecting defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to deploy him in a similar manner. That should benefit Justin Houston, who was still very productive in 2019.
- The secondary is a bit unsettled. I guess Xavier Rhodes is penciled in as a starter. Behind him, it’s 2019 Day 2 pick Rock Ya-Sin and veteran T.J. Carrie. Second-year box safety Khari Willis will start alongside Malik Hooker, a rangy centerfield safety who hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Rookie Julian Blackmon should also get some time as a nickel-safety hybrid.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Coverage
Biggest strength: Offensive line
Player who needs to make the leap: Rock Ya-Sin
Floor/ceiling: 8-11 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Tennessee Titans
2019 record: 9-7 (+71 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 6th / Run: 5th)
Defensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 21st / Run: 9th)
New coaches: Jim Haslett hired as LB coach, no replacement for Dean Pees hired
Added: EDGE Vic Beasley
Lost: QB Marcus Mariota, OT Jack Conklin, DT Jurrell Casey, TE Delanie Walker
Opt-outs: OT Anthony McKinney
Key rookies: T Isaiah Wilson, Georgia (29th); CB Kristian Fulton, LSU (61st); RB Darrynton Evans, App State (93rd)
Regression alert! 30th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.1 wins
Offense
- It’s going to be nearly impossible for Ryan Tannehill to replicate what he did last year, and that’s what the Titans were paying for when they essentially gave him the Kirk Cousins deal. There weren’t really improvements in the areas where Tannehill was weak — processing time and pocket presence — as he still took a bunch of sacks. The difference in 2019 was him hitting throws at an unsustainable rate. He also performed well on PA passes and under pressure — both are typically volatile year to year.
- While it was Tannehill’s breakout that carried the offense, traditional football observers still see Derrick Henry as the engine of the offense. But there’s a lot of wear and tear on that engine after another high-volume season. Henry is an alien in terms of size and strength, but you have to imagine all those hits will start taking their toll eventually.
- Play-action was a big weapon for Tennessee in 2019 but their usage didn’t really increase all that much, per Football Outsiders, going from 29% to 31% from 2018 to 2019. They were just a lot more effective. The Titans led the league by almost a full yard, averaging 11.2 yards per play. The last team to average over 11 yards per play on play-action was the record-breaking 2013 Broncos. Looking at the best play action teams of the last decade, almost all of them regressed the next year. Their average DVOA dropped from 71.5% to 32%, per Football Outsiders.
Defense
- The Jadeveon Clowney signing was sorely needed. Before he agreed to terms, the pass rush was going to rely heavily on defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, Harold Landry and Vic Beasley, plus Mike Vrabel drawing up some exotic pressures. With Clowney around, the defensive staff has a proven talent to build its pass rush around. It should be a strength for the team.
- Kevin Byard is a rock at the back of the secondary, but the cornerback group is a big question mark. At the same time, there’s potential there. Adoree Jackson can play when healthy. Malcolm Butler may be overpaid but he’s a reliable No. 2. And Tennessee added the ageless Jonathan Joseph to the room. The team also drafted Kristian Fulton, who was one of the best man corners in the class. Given the volatility of cornerback play around the NFL in general, this could end up being one of the better groups in the league — or slightly below average, as it was a year ago.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up, I guess
Biggest weakness: Regression
Biggest strength: Coaching staff
Player who needs to make the leap: Harold Landry
Floor/ceiling: 6-11 wins
Win total over-under: Under
Houston Texans
2019 record: 10-6 (-7 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 16th / Run: 11th)
Defensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 26th / Run: 22nd)
New coaches: Anthony Weaver, Defensive coordinator
Added: RB David Johnson, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Randall Cobb
Lost: WR DeAndre Hopkins, DT D.J Reader, CB Jonathan Joseph
Injuries: CB Gareon Conley (IR, at least until Week 4)
Opt-outs: DT Eddie Vanderdoes
Key Rookies: DT Ross Blacklock, TCU (40th); EDGE Jonathan Greenard, Florida (90th); OT Charlie Heck, UNC (126th); CB John Reid, Penn State (141st); WR Isaiah Coulter, Rhode Island (171st)
Regression alert! +2 Pythagorean wins
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.5 wins
- The offense still revolves around Deshaun Watson — which certainly isn’t a bad thing — but his degree of difficulty was raised considerably with DeAndre Hopkins leaving town. He was replaced by Brandin Cooks, who’s suffered five concussions in his career, and Randall Cobb, who is on the wrong side of 30. Will Fuller, Watson’s best weapon, can’t stay healthy.
- Houston has invested a lot into the offensive line and it’s still just fine but, on paper, it could be one of the better ones in the league if everything breaks right: Tunsil is one of the more talented blindside protectors in the league. Tytus Howard was inconsistent as expected but shows flashes. 2019 draft pick Max Scharping was solid in pass pro as a rookie. And C Nick Martin looks to have developed into a good player. Right guard is still a black hole.
Defense
- J.J. Watt’s health is the biggest question mark on the defense. He was the Watt of old last year before suffering a pectoral tear, which somehow didn’t stop him from making it back for the playoffs. Whitney Mercilus was disappointing in the starring role after Watt was hurt, The highly-paid edge rusher tallied only 7.5 sacks. The pass-rushing cupboard is bare beyond those two unless second-round pick Ross Blacklock is productive as a rookie.
- The linebacking corps is a strength. Zach Cunningham just signed an extension and it’s well deserved. He’s a dominant run defender who is reliable in coverage but not a difference-maker. Benardrick McKinney is like a lesser version of him, but a useful player.
- There are a lot of recognizable corners here: Bradley Roby, Gareon Conley, Lonnie Johnson, Phillip Gaines, Vernon Hargraves, rookie John Reid. Houston is just hoping that three of them can stay healthy and play well. It’s not a terrible strategy, actually.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Bill O’Brien
Biggest strength: Deshaun Watson
Player who needs to make the leap: Lonnie Johnson
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Jacksonville Jaguars
2019 record: 6-10 (-97 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 22nd / Run: 28th)
Defensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 22nd / Run: 31st)
New coaches: Jay Gruden, Offensive coordinator
Added: LB Joe Schobert, TE Tyler Eifert, CB Rashaan Melvin (opted out)
Lost: EDGE Calais Campbell, CB A.J. Bouye, QB Nick Foles, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, RB Leonard Fournette
Opt-outs: DT Al Woods, CB Rashaan Melvin and DE Lerentee McCray
Key Rookies: CB CJ Henderson, Florida (9th); EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU (20th); Round 2; WR Laviska Shenault, Colorado (42nd); DT Davon Hamilton, Ohio State (73rd); OT Ben Bartch, St. John’s (116th)
Regression alert! 4th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.1 wins
Offense
- Gardner Minshew was a far worse player per DVOA after that first stretch before Foles returned from injury. QBR and PFF grades both paint a similar picture of his season. He put up five straight “below average” PFF grades before a meaningless Week 17 game v. Indianapolis.
- Minshew’s supporting cast is actually pretty solid. The offensive line is average and there’s continuity there. Right guard is the only question mark, with two young tackles (Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor), highly paid LG Andrew Norwell and C Brandon Linder coming off his best season as a pro.
- The receiving corps is young, talented and athletic with Laviska Shenault joining D.J. Chark, Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook, who all had good years despite the unsettled quarterback situation. Tyler Eifert is playing tight end but hasn’t been healthy in half a decade. In Jay Gruden, they have a proven offensive play-caller making sure they get the most out of those players.
Defense
- Unlike the offense, the defense saw a lot of turnover. Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell are all gone. They’ve been replaced by rookies and mid-level free agents.
- It looks like it’ll be Josh Allen on his own in the pass rush. K’Lavon Chaisson better have a big rookie season or quarterbacks will have plenty of time to attack the unproven secondary. 2018 first-round pick Taven Bryan has reportedly been a standout in camp and could provide interior pressure.
- The secondary is going to rely on C.J. Henderson has the no. 1 guy as a rookie. What could go wrong there? Rashaan Melvin was supposed to be the No. 2 guy but opted out, now that role falls to Tre Herndon.
- The strength of the defense is probably the linebacker pair of Joe Schobert and Myles Jack. Both guys can cover a lot of ground in coverage, and they’ll have to in order to cover for the secondary.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down (but for good reason)
Biggest weakness: Quarterback
Biggest strength: Young playmakers
Player who needs to make the leap: Taven Bryan
Floor/ceiling: 3-6-wins
Win total over-under: Under
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