NFC South
New Orleans Saints
2019 record: 13-3 (+117 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 4th (Pass: 3rd / Run: 10th)
Defensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 13th / Run: 5th)
Added: S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders, RB Ty Montgomery, OT James Hurst
Lost: S Vonn Bell, CB Eli Apple, LB A.J. Klein, OG Larry Warford
Opt-outs: TE Jason Vander Laan and TE Cole Wick
Key Rookies: C/G Cesar Ruiz, Michigan (24th); LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin (74th); TE Adam Trautman, Dayton (105th)
Regression alert! 2nd in turnover margin; 1st in fumble recovery percentage; 26th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 10.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 10.5 wins
Offense
- The ceiling for the offense is quite high but still tied to how well Drew Brees ages. He’s still as accurate as ever and even though his aDOT did dip a bit, we’ve seen similar dips in past years only for it to jump back up. With Emmanuel Sanders offering another down-field target, Brees won’t have to rely heavily on backs as outlets, which will naturally boost his aDOT.
- With Sanders here, the passing game shouldn’t be nearly as Michael Thomas-centric. He led the league with 185 targets, which was just 23 short of Rob Moore’s record. The approach has worked during the regular season, but Thomas has been blanketed in the team’s last two playoff losses. Now they have another option who can get open on his own.
- The rest of the offense is largely the same with Larry Warford being replaced by rookie Cesar Ruiz in a money-saving move. TE Adam Trautman and RB/WR Ty Montgomery are the other two additions but will mostly be depth guys.
Defense
- The defense is also largely the same with Malcolm Jenkins offering an upgrade over the departing Vonn Bell. The Saints were vulnerable to big plays, and Jenkins’ presence could help solve that issue.
- The defensive line is loaded both inside and out and is equally effective at stopping the run and getting after the passer. The Saints just missed out on signing Jadeveon Clowney (because the NFL is a bunch of haters) but it’s not like they needed him.
- The secondary is deep with two good outside corners in Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins plus a group of capable slot defenders in PJ Williams, Chauncy Gardner-Johnson and Patrick Robinson.
- Demario Davis might be the league’s most underrated linebacker but there are question marks behind him with Kiko Alonzo and Alex Anzalone on the depth chart.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Drew Brees’ age
Biggest strength: Depth at every position
Player who needs to make the leap: Marcus Davenport
Floor/ceiling: 10-14 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 record: 7-9 (+9 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 22nd (Pass: 18th / Run: 26th)
Defensive DVOA: 5th (Pass: 12th / Run: 1st)
Added: QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski
Lost: QB Jameis Winston, WR Breshad Perriman, EDGE Carl Nassib
Opt-outs: OT Brad Seaton
Key Rookies: T Tristan Wirfs, Iowa (13th); S Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota (45th); RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt (76th); WR Tyler Johnson, Minnesota (161st)
Regression alert! 31st in Adjusted Games Lost; 28th in turnover margin
Over-under: 10 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.9 wins
Offense
- Even if Tom Brady isn’t Tom Brady, the Bucs will get one huge benefit from switching QBs: Better field position. Tampa Bay’s opponents had the best average starting field position in the league and that was a direct result of Jameis Winston’s interceptions. Not to mention the NFL record seven pick-6s. The Bucs were fifth in defensive DVOA but at the bottom of the league in points allowed. That will change.
- But even with all the turnover, Jameis was still a more productive QB than Brady was. Of course, having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin helped, but even when those two were hurt, Jameis was still racking up numbers. Brady’s decline might offset whatever benefits a reduction in turnovers might provide. Brady was a below-average QB over the second half of the season per DVOA.
- Brady used a lot of play-action throughout his career, but it hasn’t really been a thing for Arians’ offense. That will be the first clue into whether Arians plans to adjust his offense to fit Brady — or if he’ll just hope that the 43-year-old can handle a completely new approach.
- Offensive line has long been an issue in Tampa, but Brady should make it better. And he can mitigate the issues at tackle, where they have the inconsistent Donovan Smith and rookie Tristan Whirfs playing. The interior is good, at least to the left with guard Ali Marpet and center Ryan Jensen holding things down. Alex Cappa is the weak link at right guard.
Defense
- Todd Bowles orchestrated an almost-historic defensive turnaround, but when a team improves that much, we expected some regression the next season. However, the Bucs are bringing back nearly everyone on that side of the ball: 10 of 11 starters return with highly touted rookie Antoine Winfield being the new guy. Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett were all free agents but came back. The secondary is young and promising.
- The line is deep. JPP flourished under Bowles. Barrett led the league in sacks. Suh is still good and Vita Vea is emerging as a star nose tackle. Plus Bowles is one of the best coaches in the league at drawing up blitzes.
- The linebacker group is wildly talented, too, with Lavonta David and 2019 first-rounder Devin White. There aren’t big names in the secondary but Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jameel Dean played well as first and second-year players in a demanding scheme.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Running game
Biggest strength: Playmakers on offense
Player who needs to make the leap: Devin White
Floor/ceiling: 9-12 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Atlanta Falcons
2019 record: 7-9 (-18 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 15th (Pass: 12th / Run: 22nd)
Defensive DVOA: 20th (Pass: 25th / Run: 14th)
New coaches: Raheem Morris, Defensive coordinator
Added: EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., TE Hayden Hurst, RB Todd Gurley, EDGE Charles Harris
Lost: CB Desmond Trufant, RB Devonta Freeman, EDGE Vic Beasley Jr., LB De’Vondre Campbell, TE Austin Hooper
Key Rookies: CB A.J. Terrell, Clemson (16th); DT Marlon Davidson, Auburn (47th); C Matt Hennessey, Temple (78th)
Regression alert! 3-0 in coin flip games; 28th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.1 wins
Offense
- As long as the passing game is strong, which it should be once again with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, the floor for this team remains higher than most. Though Dirk Koetter is doing his best to lower it with an unimaginative offense and outdated approach. It was a down year for Ryan, by his standards, but his tape looks as good as ever.
- Atlanta invested a lot into the offensive line and it didn’t play very well in 2019. Chris Lindstrom showed flashes but injuries wiped out most of his rookie season. Kaleb McGary was straight-up bad as a rookie, which did not come as a surprise. Veteran signings James Carpenter and Jamon Brown were both bad and now Brown is gone. Alex Mack is nearing retirement and coming off a down year but the team did draft his successor in Matt Hennessey. Jake Matthews also had a bad year but he’s still young and should rebound.
Defense
- The Falcons have finished 20th or worse in defensive DVOA for the last three seasons. Injuries have certainly been an issue, but the team’s poor drafting has been the biggest one. Takk McKinnley has underachieved and he’s been the best out of the team’s recent picks on that side of the ball. CB Isaiah Oliver, DT Deandre Senat and LB Duke Riley have been liabilities when they’re on the field.
- The defense did improve after Raheem Morris took over the defensive coordinator role, but that had a lot to do with an easier schedule.
- There still isn’t an obvious area of strength on the defense outside of maybe the line which is at least more promising. Grady Jarrett is a destroyer of worlds but has no reliable help. Dante Fowler was brought in and he’s a solid No. 2 pass rusher. Takk McKinley has to be more consistent. The team did use a second-round pick on Marlon Davidson, an undersized pass rusher in the mold of Jarrett.
- Injuries have clearly affected Deion Jones, whose missed-tackle numbers have been on the rise. Next to him are positional converts Deone Bucannon and Charles Harris.
- The cornerback group is an abomination: AJ Terrell could win the No. 1 job and he was seen as a work in progress by draft experts. Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield were both lost in coverage last season. The safety pair of Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal has played well in the past, but both have suffered serious injuries in the last two years.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Secondary
Biggest strength: Passing game
Player who needs to make the leap: Kaleb McGary
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Under
Carolina Panthers
2019 record: 5-11 (-130 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 28th (Pass: 31st / Run: 9th)
Defensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 11th / Run: 32nd)
New coaches: Matt Rhule, HC; Joe Brady, Offensive coordinator; Phil Snow, Defensive coordinator
Added: QB Teddy Bridgewater, S Tre Boston, OT Russell Okung, WR Robby Anderson, CB Eli Apple, CB Rasul Douglas
Lost: QB Cam Newton, OG Trai Turner, EDGE Mario Addison, DE Gerald McCoy, TE Greg Olsen, DT Vernon Butler, S Eric Reid, LB Luke Kuechly
Injuries: Eli Apple (IR, at least until Week 4)
Opt-outs: OLB Christian Miller and LB Jordan Mack
Key Rookies: DT Derrick Brown, Auburn; EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (38th); S Jeremy Chinn, SIU (64th); CB Troy Pride Jr., Notre Dame (113th)
Regression alert! 29th in turnover margin
Over-under:
Football Outsiders projection: 5.7 wins
Offense
- The defense is going to give up a lot of points, which means Teddy Bridgewater is going to have to throw the ball a lot. That’s never really been his thing, but he has a bunch of playmakers around him. And Joe Brady’s scheme seems like a perfect fit. There’s hope for the offense despite a questionable offensive line. It’s just not good enough to make up for the defense.
- Bridgewater does have a few YAC weapons to work with in Christian McCafferey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, so he may not have to push the ball down the field to produce. But he will have to start throwing deep if he’s going to get the most out of free-agent pickup Robby Anderson.
- The offensive linemen could be solid if Russell Okung can stay healthy, which he has rarely done. Left guard Michael Schofield has held up well in pass protection even if he’s not much of a run blocker. Center Matt Paradis is a reliable veteran. Right guard John Miller is not reliable but is a veteran. Right tackle Taylor Moton is talented but the last coaching staff didn’t have much faith in him.
Defense
- The NFL’s worst team based on FO’s projections. Also projected as the worst defense, which makes a lot of sense after looking at the roster. Almost every recognizable name is gone from last year’s unit. Luke Keuchly, Dontari Poe, Gerald McCoy, Mario Addison, Bruce Irvin and Vernon Butler left or retired, leaving Kawaan Short all by himself. The Panthers have reloaded the line with young, cheap talent in Derrick Brown, Yetur Gross-Matos and Brian Burns, but that’s the strength of the defense and outside of Short, there isn’t anyone with a proven track record.
- Shaq Thompson is a good linebacker but Tahir Whitehead is a replacement-level player and you’ve never heard of anyone else in the group. Kuechly will be sorely missed.
- The team’s best corners, James Bradberry and Ross Cockrell, left in free agency. Donte Jackson regressed after a promising rookie season, giving up way too many big plays. Eli Apple was brought in to bring his brand of inconsistent coverage and the team drafted Troy Pride, who is a little stiff. Other than that, it’s just a bunch of guys off the street.
- There’s a little more hope for the safety group. Tre Boston is the veteran presence in the back end. He’s not a playmaker but he’s not a liability. Rookie Jeremy Chinn is an athletic hard-hitter but his coverage skills are lacking.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Secondary
Biggest strength: Playmakers
Player who needs to make the leap: Donta Jackson
Floor/ceiling: 3-7 wins
Win total over-under: Under
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