NFC North
Green Bay Packers
2019 record: 13-3 (+63 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 11th / Run: 4th)
Defensive DVOA: 15th (Pass: 9th / Run: 23rd)
Added: LB Christian Kirksey, OT Ricky Wagner
Lost: LB Blake Martinez, OT Bryan Bulaga, CB Tramon Williams, WR Geronimo Allison, TE Jimmy Graham
Opt-outs: WR Devin Funchess
Key Rookies: QB Jordan Love, Utah State (26th); RB AJ Dillon, Boston College (62nd); TE Josiah Deguara, Cincinnati (94th)
Regression alert! +3 pythagorean wins; 4th in turnover margin; The second-worst DVOA of any 13-3 team. The 1999 Colts were the worst of the DVOA era.
Over-under: 9 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.8 wins
Offense
- The front office seemed to be content with the offense it had in place, adding Devin Funchess and Ricky Wagner in free agency, only for Funchess to opt-out. And Wagner isn’t a clear upgrade over his predecessors, Brian Bulaga. In the draft, the Packers’ first three picks were on the offensive side of the ball, but they picked three players who won’t start in 2020: Jordan Love, A.J. Dillon and Josiah Deguara.
- Aaron Rodgers hasn’t produced at a top-10 level in four years. He’s still making plays but not at the same rate and he’s taking too many sacks and not taking enough chances. His interception rate is the lowest in the league, but at what cost? Even without the interceptions, his advanced numbers are around league average. He needs to be a little more like Brett Favre.
- Especially with this receiving corps of Devante Adams and a bunch of guys. Allen Lazard might be the most promising based on numbers alone, but it seems like the coaching staff is intent on making Marquez Valdez-Scantling a thing.
- The offensive line is the strength of the team, with David Bakhtiri, Elgton Jenkins and Corey Linsley making up maybe the best left side of a line in the league. The right side isn’t so hot. Billy Turner is a sieve at right guard and Wagner is coming off a down year
Defense
- The defense is largely the same. And it was good against the pass last year but some regression is coming based on how dependent on interceptions and sacks this defense was. With Za’Darius Smith, who led the league in pressures, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark all back, the sacks should still be there, though.
- Jaire Alexander is one of the league’s brightest young stars at corner, and the safety pair of Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage is a good one. If Kevin King or Josh Jackson can emerge and take the CB2 job, this could be one of the best secondaries in the league. That’s a big “if,” though.
- The big schematic question is how much dime Mike Pettine will play after leaning heavily on it in 2019 before the tactic was exploited by the 49ers in the NFC title game.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Wide receiver
Biggest strength: Edge rushers
Player who needs to make the leap: Allen Lazard
Floor/ceiling: 7-11 wins
Win total over-under: Under 9 wins
Minnesota Vikings
2019 record: 10-6 (+104 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 10th / Run: 16th)
Defensive DVOA: 7th (Pass: 7th / Run: 8th)
New coaches: Gary Kubiak, Offensive coordinator; Adam Zimmer and Andre Patterson, co-DCs
Added: EDGE Yannick Ngakoue
Lost: WR Stefon Diggs, CB Trae Waynes, EDGE Everson Griffen, CB Mackensie Alexander, DT Linval Joseph, CB Xavier Rhodes, EDGE Yannick Ngakoue
Opt-outs: DT Michael Pierce
Key Rookies: WR Justin Jefferson, LSU (22nd); CB Jeff Gladney, TCU (31st); OT Ezra Cleveland, Boise State (58th); CB Cameron Dantzler, Mississippi State (89th); EDGE D.J. Wonnum, South Carolina (117th); EDGE James Lynch, Baylor (130th)
Regression alert! 32 in Adjusted Games Lost; 5th in TO magin
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.6 wins
Offense
- Kirk Cousins was very good in 2019, but will have to be even better in 2020 if Minnesota is going to compete for a playoff spot. The success of the offense will largely be based on the performance of Cousins on play-action passes. That was the heart of the offense last year but play-action performance is volatile year-to-year and Stefon Diggs is no longer around to haul in those deep shots.
- Mike Zimmer is still a little too insistent on establishing the run, which could limit the offense’s ceiling further. The Vikings were one of the least efficient teams on first down when running the ball. But Gary Kubiak has, in general, called fewer runs on early downs than the average NFL team, so there’s some hope.
- The offense managed to be successful in spite of the offensive line, which is good in the run game but doesn’t hold up well in pass protection. That’s certainly the case with last year’s first-round pick Garrett Bradbury. The entire line outside of the right tackle spot is shaky. Brian O’Neil is a rock on the right side, but Riley Reiff is declining at left tackle. Left guard is an open competition with not a lot of good options outside of rookie Ezra Cleveland, who played tackle at Boise State. Pat Elflein is moving over to right guard after fizzling out at left guard and center. He showed promise as a rookie but hasn’t bounced back from injuries and remains a liability in pass pro.
- The job of replacing Diggs will fall on rookie Justin Jefferson, who is a similar player in terms of how and where on the field he wins. Irv Smith making the second-year leap could help replace Diggs’ production. With Kyle Rudolph and Adam Theilen still around, the Vikings aren’t hurting for weapons. Plus Dalvin Cook is productive as a receiver out of the backfield.
Defense
- While they were able to replace the corners they lost with young guys, Minnesota was struggling to find a replacement for Griffen … then the Yannick Ngakoue trade happened and the pieces all fell into place. Ngakoue joins stud Danielle Hunter and the promising Ifeadi Odenigbo to form a solid group of edge rushers.
- Linebacker remains the strength of the defense with Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr leading that group and providing useful pass defense in their own ways.
- Cameron Dantzler was a standout in camp. If Mike Hughes is healthy and Jeff Gladney lives up to his draft hype, the Vikings secondary should be fine. Especially with Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris back at safety.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Offensive line
Biggest strength: Safeties
Player who needs to make the leap: Irv Smith
Floor/ceiling: 6-11 wins
Win total over-under: Under 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions
2019 record: 3-12-1 (-82 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 18th (Pass: 15th / Run: 27th)
Defensive DVOA: 28th (Pass: 29th / Run: 17th)
New coaches: Cory Undlin, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Desmond Trufant, LB Jamie Collins Sr., DT Danny Shelton, OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, S Duron Harmon
Lost: CB Darius Slay, G Graham Glasgow, DT Damon Harrison, EDGE Devon Kennard
Opt-outs: WR Geronimo Allison and DL John Atkins
Key Rookies: CB Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State (3rd); RB D’Andre Swift, Georgia (35th); EDGE Julian Okwara, Notre Dame (67th); G Jonah Jackson, Ohio State (75th); G Logan Stenberg, Kentucky (121st)
Regression alert! 1-5-1 in “coin flip” games; -3 pythagorean wins;
Over-under: 6.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8 wins
Offense
- A lot of the Lions hype is based on how good Matthew Stafford was in a small sample size during his first season under new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Stafford got back to chucking the ball downfield and there weren’t as many mistakes as there had been before Jim Bob Cooter’s offense reigned him in. It will be interesting to see which version of Stafford we get for a full 16 game season.
- Stafford will have a deep and balanced group of receivers to work with. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones can both win all over the field. Danny Amendola is still chugging along as a possession receiver in the slot. Marvin Hall provided some speed and big-play potential in a reserve role. Quintez Cephus is a big-bodied rookie who could give Stafford another threat in the red zone. Detroit is hoping for a break out for T.J. Hockenson in Year 2.
- There are no clear answers on the line outside of Frank Ragnow at center. LT Taylor Decker signed and extension recently but has been serviceable at best. LG Joe Dahl is entering Year 2 as a starter and wasn’t good in pass pro in Year 1. The same could be said for big free-agent acquisition Halapoulivaaati Vaitai, who will play right tackle.
Defense
- The Lions are going to be relying on Matt Patricia to scheme up pressure once again. It didn’t go so well in 2019, when Detroit had the worst pass rush in the league. It’s Trey Flowers, rookie Julian Okwara and … not much else.
- Jamie Collins wasn’t a good player last time he left New England but at least he’s in the same system now. He could also help out as a blitzer. Jarrad Davis will likely start but he’s been bad since being taken in the first round of the draft. During the offseason, Davis said he had to get better in coverage and against the run, so pretty much “playing linebacker.”
- The secondary looks strong after the team used the third pick on Jeff Okudah, who replaces Darius Slay. They also took a flier on Desmond Trufant. If he’s serviceable, the Lions have a good group with Justin Coleman manning the slot. Tracy Walker and Duron Harmon aren’t household names but both are reliable safeties, and Harmon obviously knows the system.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Pass rush
Biggest strength: Secondary
Player who needs to make the leap: TJ Hockenson
Floor/ceiling: 5-10 wins
Win total over-under: Over 6.5 wins
Chicago Bears
2019 record: 8-8 (-18 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 19th / Run: 29th)
Defensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 8th / Run: 13th)
New coaches: Bill Lazor, Offensive coordinator
Added: QB Nick Foles, EDGE Robert Quinn, TE Jimmy Graham, CB Artie Burns, OL Germain Ifedi
Lost: CB Prince Amukamara, WR Taylor Gabriel, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, EDGE Leonard Floyd, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, OG Kyle Long
Opt-outs: DT Eddie Goldman
Key Rookies: TE Cole Kmet, Notre Dame (43rd); CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah (50th)
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.8 wins
Offense
- Almost all of the positivity from Mitch Trubisky’s 2018 season — which is really why the team still has some belief in him — was based on his play under pressure (unsustainable) and his scrambling (ditto). When he wasn’t able to maintain his performance in those facets, we saw the drop off in 2019. Even returning to his 2018 is a big ask.
- The offensive line is mostly the same. Germain Ifedi was brought in to replace the retiring Kyle Long. Ifedi is a better run blocker than pass protector, which is what Chicago needs after a dismal performance in the run game by the offensive line in 2019. Things will be better if LT Charles Leno rebounds after a down season. RT Bobby Massie has been solid throughout his career. Cody Whitehair is a good run blocker at center and James Daniels is solid-to-mediocre at left guard.
- The receiving corps is led by the under-appreciated Allen Robinson, who has managed to earn the reputation as a true No. 1 WR despite terrible QB play throughout his career. Anthony Miller needs to break out in Year 3 after getting hype coming out of the draft. There are some intriguing options for the third spot with Riley Ridley and Ted Ginn in the mix.
- The Bears have a million tight ends on their roster and none of them are terribly exciting. Jimmy Graham got $16 million over two years for some reason. Cole Kmet has a chance to become a good player but Chicago will probably waste him. Demetrius Harris is returning to a familiar system but won’t have Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball in this one.
Defense
- The defense will still be very good and could be even better than it was a year ago with Robert Quinn joining Khalil Mack. Losing Eddie Goldman hurts but only on early downs. Akiem Hick played only 5 games last year, so getting him back healthy will provide a huge boost.
- The linebacker corps got a little worse with Nick Kwiatkowski leaving for Las Vegas, which puts more pressure on Danny Trevathan to stay healthy and play well. It’s time for Roquan Smith to establish himself as a Pro Bowl-level linebacker. Trevathan and Smith were good against the run in 2019. They need to be better in coverage for this unit to return to elite status.
- The pass defense will be better if Kyle Fuller bounces back after a bad year in coverage. His track record suggests that’s likely. Rookie Jaylon Johnson could start across from him. He’s a physical corner who showed off man coverage skills at Utah. Buster Skrine is a non-liability in the slot but was a clear downgrade from Bryce Callahan.
- Eddie Jackson is the highest-paid safety in the league for a reason. He’s a deep safety who does more than just man the deep middle. He actually makes plays from that spot which is hard to do. The second safety spot is up for grabs with veterans Deon Bush and Tashaun Gipson vying for the job.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Quarterback
Biggest strength: Pass rush
Player who needs to make the leap: Anthony Miller
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Under 8.5 wins
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