AFC East
New England Patriots
2019 record: 12-4 (+195 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 14th / Run: 15th)
Defensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1st / Run: 6th)
New coaches: Lost OL coach Dante Scarnecchia
Added: QB Cam Newton, DT Beau Allen, WR Damiere Byrd
Lost: QB Tom Brady, EDGE Kyle Van Noy, LB Jamie Collins Sr., DT Danny Shelton, C Ted Karras, S Duron Harmon
Opt-outs: LB Dont’a Hightower, CB Patrick Chung, OT Marcus Cannon, WR Marqise Lee, RB Brandon Bolden, TE Matt LaCosse, FB Dan Vitale
Key Rookies: S Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne (37th); EDGE Josh Uche, Michigan (60th); EDGE Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (87th); TE Devin Asiasi, UCLA (91st); TE Dalton Keene, Virginia Tech (101st)
Regression alert! 1st in turnover margin; 2nd in fumble recovery percentage
Over-under: 9.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.5 wins
Offense
- They solved the QB issue by signing Cam Newton, but they’re still short on pass catchers behind Julian Edelman. They need some young guys — N’Keal Harry or Jakobi Myers, in particular — to step up. Mohamed Sanu was seen as a potential bounce-back candidate but got bounced off the roster instead. Rookie TE Devin Asiasi was a stand out in camp, and we know Cam likes his tight ends.
- Personnel is not really the issue of the offensive line –though the Marcus Cannon opt-out hurts — because Dante Scarrnecia is gone. The long-time offensive line coach was considered to be one of the best in league history. The tackle spot is a concern. The hope is Isaiah Wynn is ready to start playing like a first-round pick after missing his rookie season and going through some inconsistency in Year 2. He did earn a 75 pass-blocking grade from PFF, so there’s reason to be optimistic.
Defense
- The defense was already due for some turnover regression and was going to have a hard time replacing Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy, but then the opt-outs hit. Now there’s almost no way this unit doesn’t regress. Football Outsiders actually has them regressing to the 26th ranked defense.
- Young players like Chase Winovich, Josh Uche and Ju’Whaun Bentley need to fill the void left behind by departures/opt-outs.
- Mosty of the losses were to the front seven. The secondary is still as deep as ever with rookie Kyle Dugger stepping in for Patrick Chung, who opted out. The cornerback group is deep with Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson at the top of the depth chart.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? down
Biggest weakness: Skill players
Biggest strength: Coaching staff
Player who needs to make the leap: N’Keal Harry
Floor/ceiling: 9-12 wins
Win total over-under: Over 9.5 wins
Buffalo Bills
2019 record: 10-6 (+55 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 21st (Pass: 20th / Run: 19th)
Defensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 5th / Run: 18th)
Added: WR Stefon Diggs, EDGE Mario Addison, DT Vernon Butler, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Josh Norman
Lost: EDGE Shaq Lawson, EDGE Lorenzo Alexander, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Jordan Phillips
Injuries: OG John Feliciano (IR, at least until Week 4)
Opt-outs: DT Star Lotulelei and CB E.J. Gaines
Key Rookies: EDGE AJ Epenesa, Iowa (54th); RB Zack Moss, Utah (86th); WR Gabriel Davis, UCF (128th)
Regression alert! Outperformed win expectation by 2 games based on DVOA
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.9 wins
Offense
- Some reason to be optimistic about Josh Allen: The Bills ranked 10th in passing DVOA over the second half of the season. The problem: That was almost entirely based on unsustainable turnover luck. Allen benefitted from being among the league leaders in having potential interceptions dropped and because the Bills recovered a high percentage of his fumbles.
- Buffalo is hoping the Stefon Diggs acquisition will help Allen improve but Diggs dominates down the field and hitting on deep throws has been Allen’s biggest issue so far during his career.
- The front office rebuilt the offensive line last year and those five guys return: Dion Dawkins (who just signed a 4-year extension) at left tackle, Quinton Spain at left guard, Mitch Morse in the middle and John Feliciano and Cody Ford manning the right side.
Defense
- The Defense is expected to be good once again, but replacing Lorenzo Alexander, who was an early-down linebacker and passing down pass rusher, will be difficult. Two former Panthers — AJ Klein and Mario Addison — will replace him by committee. Sean McDermott has earned the benefit of doubt he’ll be able to make it all work with a new-look front seven.
- Tack end of the defense remains intact with top 5 players in terms of snaps played return: Tre White, Levi Wallace, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Taron Johnson. Plus the team added Josh Norman.
- Something that will help the Bills pass defense avoid regression: They have one of the easiest slate of opposing QBs in 2020, per The Athletic’s Tier rankings.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Josh Allen
Biggest strength: Secondary
Player who needs to make the leap: Dawson Knox
Floor/ceiling: 7-12 wins
Win total over-under: Over 8.5 wins
New York Jets
2019 record: 7-9 (-83 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 32nd / Run: 31st)
Defensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 18th / Run: 2nd)
Added: OT George Fant, C Connor McGovern, CB Quincy Wilson, QB Joe Flacco
Lost: WR Robby Anderson, C Ryan Kalil, OT Brandon Shell, OT Kelvin Beachum, CB Trumaine Johnson
Opt-outs: LB C.J. Mosely, WR Josh Doctson and OL Leo Koloamatangi
Key Rookies: T Mekhi Becton, Louisville (11th); WR Denzel Mims, Baylor (59th); S Ashtyn Davis, California (68th); EDGE Jabari Zuniga, Florida (79th); CB Bryce Hall, Virginia (158th)
Regression alert! 1st in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 6.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.4 wins
Offense
- Sam Darnold sturggled, in part, because he didn’t have a lot of weapons to work with. Well, the receiver corps is not any better on paper in 2020, though the ceiling is higher with second-round pick Denzel Mims (who missed camp with a hamstring injury) and Breshad Perriman joining Jamison Crowder. Tight end Chris Herndon is being hyped for a second straight offseason after missing all but one game in 2019. He did have a good camp.
- The offensive line is the big question mark, but the front office did take the Buffalo approach this offseason, signing mid-level free agents and using draft picks to try to build it up. Noah Fant, Mekhi Becton and Connor McGovern are the big additions to one of the worst lines in the league last season.
- Darnold could help out by being more controlled in the pocket and getting rid of the ball quicker. Only two QBs had a higher average time to throw than Darnold last year.
Defense
- The defense is in good hands with Gregg Williams running things, as crazy as that sounds. They were a top defense last year and that was with bad turnover luck.
- Jamal Adams was a good player but it’s not a huge loss for the team, which got Bradley McDougald back in the trade and drafted Ashtyn Davis to go along with Marcus Maye. In camp, Maye was in the Adams role with McDougald playing deep and Davis spelling McDougald occasionally.
- Cornerback is the problem area with Pierre Desir and Young Guy Who Wins the Job in Camp starting.
- It looks like Neville Hewitt and Blake Cashman will start at linebacker with C.J. Mosley opting out and Avery Williamson still on the PUP list. Cashman is the more promising of the two. He put up elite athletic numbers at the combine and drew some praise from Adam Gase during camp.
- Still no clear threats on the edge. They drafted Jabari Zuniga, who is an athlete more than a football player but could be given good opportunities thanks to Williams’ blitzes. They’ll rely on scheme to get pressure.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Adam Gase
Biggest strength: Gregg Williams
Player who needs to make the leap: Quinnen Williams
Floor/ceiling: 5-9 wins
Win total over-under: Over 6.5 wins
Miami Dolphins
2019 record: 5-11 (-188 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 27th (Pass: 25th / Run: 32nd)
Defensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 32nd / Run: 27th)
New coaches: Chan Gailey, Offensive coordinator; Josh Boyer, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Byron Jones, EDGE Kyle Van Noy, EDGE Shaq Lawson, G Ereck Flowers, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, RB Jordan Howard, C Ted Karras, RB Matt Breida
Lost: No key losses
Injuries: OLB Vince Biegel (season)
Opt-outs: WR Albert Wilson and WR Allen Hurns
Key Rookies: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (5th); T Austin Jackson, USC (18th); CB Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn (30th); OG Robert Hunt, Louisiana (39th); DT Raekwon Davis, Alabama (56th); S Brandon Jones, Texas (70th); DT Solomon Kindley, Georgia (111th)
Regression alert! 3-1 in coin-flip games; 5th in Adjusted Games Lost; 27th in turnover margin
Over-under: 6 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 6.4 wins
Offense
- If not for a weird offseason, it would be concerning that Tua Tagovailoa did not win the starting job out of camp. But given the injury, the abbreviated offseason and him not getting live reps in preseason, I wouldn’t read into it.
- The Dolphins had arguably the worst offensive line in the league last season, both in the run game and pass game, but they added a lot of (slight) upgrades, signing Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras in free agency before drafting Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt and Solomon Kindley. Julie’n Davenport and Ja’Marcus Webb were the worst tackle pair in the league and 2019 third-round pick Michael Deiter wasn’t much better. They’re all back but none are long-term solutions.
- The receiving corps took a hit with Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opting out, but there’s still plenty of young talent to get excited about here. Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant could form a decent trio. And Mike Gesicki is just cosplaying as a tight end.
Defense
- Brian Flores is building his defense in the Patriots’ image. They’re loaded at corner after signing Byron Jones and drafting Noah Igbinoghene (Igbee-Nog-Buh-Nee) to go along with Xavien Howard and Nik Needham. Former Pats corner Eric Rowe is switching to SS.
- After Vince Beigel tore his Achilles in camp, it’s really Kyle Van Noy left on the edge. The Dolphins do have big defensive linemen capable of occupying blockers. Even if there have no bona fide pass rushers, they have the players to scheme up some pressure.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Offensive line
Biggest strength: Cornerback depth
Player who needs to make the leap: Christian Wilkins
Win total over-under: Under 6 wins
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