Look, I’m not going to go as fas as saying Justin Herbert is a bad football player, but I’ll say this: Right now, he’s a bad quarterback. Sure, he’s big and strong and can throw the ball over them mountains, but when it comes to all of the other areas where good NFL starters typically excel, he is aggressively not good.
If everything goes right, and Herbert’s first read is open, he looks like a star. You can say that about a lot of quarterbacks, though. It’s when Herbert has to move onto his next read where things breakdown — at least mentally. But the Oregon product checks all of the boxes for your run-of-the-mill NFL exec, so he’ll go in the first round and the splash plays will inspire hope in his new fanbase but will ultimately lead to nowhere.
+ Unreal arm strength allows him to get the ball to any spot on the field
[jwplayer 9Pw1Fd2A-EUNY1AaW]
+ A good athlete with enough bulk to hold up in an offense that consistently features the QB in the run game
[jwplayer 4dzEankh-EUNY1AaW]
+ Shows reliable accuracy when throwing to the middle of the field
[jwplayer 3EKjS4a4-EUNY1AaW]
– Needs to see the receiver get open before throwing the ball
[jwplayer NEDZKo9j-EUNY1AaW]
– Not afraid of the pocket but isn’t great at navigating it to avoid pass rushers and find clean throwing platforms
[jwplayer fVBeP6Wk-EUNY1AaW]
– Wildly inaccurate on touch throws to the perimeter
[jwplayer E72ukt0x-EUNY1AaW]
I didn’t include bubble screens here, which is why there is a bunch of orange and yellow in the graphic. Herbert wasn’t asked to make a lot of NFL throws, but when he was, he typically wasn’t up to the task. 
For a guy with a big arm, Herbert did not make a lot of big-time throws. Oregon’s offense is partially to blame, but so is Herbert’s accuracy, as you can see in the numbers.
Jump to another QB: Joe Burrow | Tua Tagovailoa | Jordan Love | Anthony Gordon | Jalen Hurts | Jacob Eason | Jake Fromm | Back to Rankings
Glossary of advanced stats
PFF
Adjusted Completion Percentage:
“Adjusted completion percentage considers factors outside of the quarterback’s control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw.”
Average Depth of Target:
The average distance a quarterback’s throws travel past the line of scrimmage.
Big-time Throw Percentage:
“In its simplest terms, a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value … Therefore, the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
Turnover-worthy Throw Percentage:
“For quarterbacks, there are two ways to achieve a turnover-worthy play: throw a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or do a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.”
SIS
On-target Throw Percentage:
“The number of accurate throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts”
Catchable Throw Percentage:
“The number of catchable throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts”
EPA:
“Expected Points Added; the total change in the offense’s Expected Points that came on passes thrown by the player”
Total Points:
“The total of a player’s EPA responsibility on passes using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play. For passers, this includes accounting for offensive line play, sacks, off-target passes, dropped passes, and dropped interceptions.”
IQR:
“Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.”