So maybe Joe Burrow isn’t the slam dunk prospect many people believe he is, but I have no doubt in my mind that he’ll be, at the very least, a good NFL starter. I just don’t see how a quarterback who is accurate, poised in the pocket and has a firm grasp on what defenses are throwing at him would fail.
Well, going to the Bengals might be one way, but even they can’t screw this up. So why aren’t I higher on Burrow as a prospect? I covered that in-depth here, but the TL;DR: Burrow’s arm isn’t special and our perception of him as a prospect is based on a year of unsustainable production.
+ Accurate to all levels of the fields. He really shines on intermediate crossing routes.
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+ Doesn’t lose any accuracy when throwing on the run outside of the pocket.
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+ Poised in the pocket and has no problem going through his reads when it closes in on him.
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+ Gets the ball out quickly thanks to sharp pre-snap reads and post-snap anticipation.
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– Arm strength isn’t what you’d expect from a blue-chip prospect. Deep balls can die in the air.
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– Accuracy isn’t quite as good in tighter pockets, which will be more frequent in the NFL.
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– Throws into coverage more than the numbers imply. The tight-window throws could turn into turnovers against NFL defenders.
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Unsurprisingly, Burrow was productive on just about every kind of throw there was. Deep outs seemed to give him some trouble, which matches with the concerns about his arm strength. Burrow was at his best on in-breaking routes — at any level — which should translate to the NFL level.
Burrow’s stats are impressive across the board. Statistically speaking, he is the most accurate quarterback in the class but, as you can see with his average depth of target and big-time throw percentage, he wasn’t just dinking-and-dunking to pad those stats.
Jump to another QB: Tua Tagovailoa | Jordan Love | Justin Herbert | Anthony Gordon | Jalen Hurts | Jacob Eason | Jake Fromm | Back to Rankings
Glossary of advanced stats
PFF
Adjusted Completion Percentage:
“Adjusted completion percentage considers factors outside of the quarterback’s control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw.”
Average Depth of Target:
The average distance a quarterback’s throws travel past the line of scrimmage.
Big-time Throw Percentage:
“In its simplest terms, a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value … Therefore, the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
Turnover-worthy Throw Percentage:
“For quarterbacks, there are two ways to achieve a turnover-worthy play: throw a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or do a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.”
SIS
On-target Throw Percentage:
“The number of accurate throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts”
Catchable Throw Percentage:
“The number of catchable throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts”
EPA:
“Expected Points Added; the total change in the offense’s Expected Points that came on passes thrown by the player”
Total Points:
“The total of a player’s EPA responsibility on passes using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play. For passers, this includes accounting for offensive line play, sacks, off-target passes, dropped passes, and dropped interceptions.”
IQR:
“Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.”