By now, everyone understands just how quickly Sean McVay helped turn around the Rams when he arrived in 2017. He took a team that was a complete mess under Jeff Fisher and turned it into a conference champion in two seasons, also developing Jared Goff into a Pro Bowler at quarterback.
But metrics from Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz puts into perspective just how bad the Rams offense was in 2016, one year before McVay took over. In a piece for ESPN, Schatz ranked the 10 best teams of the last decade based on Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) – which measures a team’s success on each play compared to league average.
The Rams weren’t on that list, but instead in the bottom five of the worst offenses of the decade. They were the second-worst of the last 10 years with a DVOA of -37.8, only better than the 2018 Cardinals (-41.1%).
To put into context just how bad that offense was, it ranked last in points, total yards, touchdown passes and first downs. The 2016 Rams had the second-fewest passing yards, third-most interceptions, second-fewest rushing yards and averaged 3.3 yards per carry – 31st in the NFL. Their 224 points were 40 fewer than every other team and they had 727 fewer yards than the next-worst team.
There were some exceptionally bad individual performances on that team, too. Goff’s 2016 season was ranked as the third-worst by a quarterback in the last decade, ahead of Blaine Gabbert in 2011 and Josh Rosen in 2018 based on DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards above replacement). Goff’s DYAR was -884 in 2016.
Granted, he was in a horrible situation with a weak supporting cast and a head coach who couldn’t game plan on offense. Speaking of a weak supporting cast, Tavon Austin’s 2016 season was ranked as the second-worst by a wide receiver in the last 10 years with a DYAR of -173.
That season, Austin was targeted 106 times but only caught 58 passes for 509 yards and three touchdowns, a putrid average of 8.8 yards per catch. He also fumbled it five times that year.
There was some good that came out of Schatz’s list, though. Todd Gurley appeared on it twice, and not for his terrible 2016 campaign. His 2018 season was ranked as the eighth-best by a running back this decade, posting 464 DYAR that year when he was an All-Pro. Gurley’s 2017 season was even better (504 DYAR), which is when he won Offensive Player of the Year.
Gurley’s 2018 season has more rushing value but his 2017 season has more than twice as much receiving value. Gurley had 788 receiving yards on 64 catches for a 12.3 yards per reception average (second among running backs behind Chris Thompson) plus six touchdowns. He added 13 touchdowns on the ground to go with 1,305 rushing yards.
Gurley is no longer with the Rams, of course, but his mark on the franchise was certainly left in those two seasons – as well as his rookie year in 2015. It’s hard to fathom Cam Akers dominating the way Gurley did in 2017 and 2018, but the Rams can only hope he’s a Pro Bowler at some point down the line.