Houston Texans v. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5

Over/Under 50.5

Here’s another game where we have two pieces of advice.

Advice Piece 2: Don’t overthink things. Sometimes it is what it is. If an underdog can’t win, don’t take them unless there’s a logical reason — like both teams will run the ball the entire game, shortening the game because the clock will continue to run, and therefore 10 points is a lot of points.

Advice Piece 3: Buy a half-point. Vegas is very good at this. Even if it doesn’t make sense at least you have a chance to push. Buy a lot of points if you wish.

Yes, the Texans beat Kansas City in the regular season, but that was months ago. The Chiefs had a top-five defense over the last quarter of the season. They are healthy. They have speed all over the place. They are battle tested from their run last year in the playoffs. Don’t overthink this.

Expect the Texans to play more man than zone as Mahomes is markedly better against zone coverages. The problem is Houston doesn’t have the talent in the secondary to keep up with the Chiefs scheme and weapons. Again, don’t overthink this.

The only reason to take the Texans is because Will Fuller will be on the football field and Houston is a different offense when Fuller is healthy, but . . . don’t overthink this. In fact, don’t overthink the over.

Picks: 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7 (-180) over Houston Texans

Over 50.5

Over 24.5 First Half