Wisconsin (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) enters must-win mode for its Week 7 trip to Rutgers (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten).
The Scarlet Knights are a strong team, currently ranked No. 44 in ESPN SP+. All metric systems, point spreads and previews have Saturday’s game as a mostly-even matchup. Wisconsin and Rutgers are neck-and-neck on paper, so a slight edge goes to the Scarlet Knights with home-field advantage.
Related: 10 keys to a Wisconsin Badgers victory over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The game is a must-win for Wisconsin because it could swing the remainder of the season. A loss would make finishing with six wins a significant challenge, as the team still has remaining games against Penn State, Oregon, Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota. A win, on the other hand, would make some of those late-season contests look like victories — it would mean the Badgers have taken real strides since their poor start to the season.
With that context in mind, it’s time for our weekly look at the reasons why Wisconsin will win or lose on Saturday:
There is an either-or argument after Wisconsin’s blowout win over Purdue: did the Badgers dramatically improve, or are the Boilermakers really that bad? Only time will tell — my guess is a bit of both.
If Wisconsin wins at Rutgers on Saturday, a reason why will be their improvement. The team from the first four games of the season will lose a matchup like this one — on the road against a tough team and tough defense. But maybe the Badgers are past those struggles.
RB Kyle Monangai is the Rutgers offense. He enters Saturday with 667 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 116 total carries through five games — good for a 5.8 yards-per-carry average. When he scores, Rutgers wins. When he doesn’t, Rutgers loses. It’s that simple.
Rutgers’ path to victory is a big game from Monangai and QB Athan Kaliakmanis not needing to do much with his arm. The reverse of that would play right into the Badgers’ hands.
Wisconsin could beat Rutgers if Saturday against Purdue was Phil Longo’s offense finding its stride.
‘It,’ in this case, could be touches for Trech Kekahuna and Vinny Anthony, steady play from QB Braedyn Locke, or a rededication to the ground game. Whatever it is, Longo’s offense needs to build an identity. Another strong showing could do just that.
One thing that is clear after watching Purdue through five weeks is that its offense is not good. It felt like Wisconsin holding the unit to six points and 216 total yards was more about the Boilermakers’ struggles than anything the Badgers did particularly well.
Questions still remain about the quality of Wisconsin’s front seven. That group will be tested by Monangai and Rutgers’ play-action-heavy offense. Rutgers’ OC is Kirk Ciarrocca — a coach who gave the Badgers trouble when he was at Minnesota (2017-19, 2022). His attack stresses the middle of the defense, which is part of a Wisconsin front seven that has underwhelmed through five games.
There is a chance that Rutgers’ 4-1 record and perceived quality is inflated after big blowout wins to start the season.
For example, it beat Washington 21-18. But Washington out-gained Rutgers 521-229, didn’t turn the football over and still somehow lost. The Scarlet Knights, generally speaking, haven’t been overly impressive against the solid teams on its schedule.
Wisconsin could find a comfortable victory if Rutgers’ start is more about an easy slate and a few good bounces than the team being any good.
I don’t know why, but this game screams as one where Wisconsin may be forced into back-breaking mistakes.
Those mistakes — failed fourth-down conversions, missed field goals, fumbles, interceptions and muffed punts — have defined each of the Badgers’ losses this season. They also almost cost the team in its wins over South Dakota and Purdue.
Wisconsin has been prone to making big mistakes. Rutgers, so far, has capitalized on them. Saturday could be about the team that plays the cleanest game from start to finish.
Wisconsin sacked Purdue QB Hudson Card three times on Saturday — by far its best output of the season to date. Kaliakmanis, like Card, has the mobility to move around in the pocket. But if Wisconsin somehow found its pass-rushing groove, it shouldn’t have much trouble stopping Purdue. Nebraska sacked Kaliakmanis four times in its 14-7 win last weekend.
Rutgers’ defense appears to be quite good, that part of the matchup isn’t much of a question. The unit is led by a strong secondary with experienced seniors across the board — CB Eric Rogers, CB Robert Longerbeam, CB Desmond Igbinosun, S Shaquan Loyal, S Flip Dixon.
Wisconsin could find some trouble in this contest if QB Braedyn Locke is tasked with winning the game with his arm. He was able to find open receivers against a bad Purdue defense, but that won’t be the case against this Rutgers secondary. The more times Locke is forced to throw, the worse Wisconsin’s chances get.
This is the same story as Locke, just even more severe. Rutgers is 4-0 when Kaliakmanis attempts 25 or fewer passes — or when Monangai excels running the football. It is 0-1 when he is forced to throw the football. The veteran quarterback went 15 of 37 passing in Rutgers’ loss to Nebraska for just 186 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions.
Wisconsin wants Kaliakmanis to throw against its strong secondary. The more time he does, the better chance the Badgers have of winning the game.
Nothing has defined Wisconsin’s season to date more than its lack of consistency. It had great drives against Alabama, then turned around and allowed a quick-strike touchdown. It led USC 21-10 at halftime, then got blanked 28-0 in the second half. It even struggled for a moment against Purdue before running away with a dominant victory.
If Wisconsin doesn’t beat Rutgers, it’s because the team still hasn’t found a way to consistently put four good quarters together.
Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, and opinion.