4. Purdue at Iowa
LINE Iowa -11.5
ATS PICK Purdue
If you’re into Purdue, wait this out as long as you possibly can because the late money is probably all going to come in on Iowa, mainly because the Saturday morning investment crowd will dive in because of the No. 2 ranking.
The scary part about this is what you’re going to be asking for. You’re looking for the Purdue defense to be special – and it might be.
BTW, if you’re buying into Purdue here, then also dive into the under on the 42.5.
We all know how amazing the Iowa defense is, but the offense – partly because it doesn’t take a whole lot of chances by design – is the worst in the Big Ten.
Now, there’s the conservative aspect of this, and there’s the defense that keeps taking the ball away to give the offense short fields, Even so, averaging 317 yards per game is way light.
Of course, Iowa leads the Big Ten in scoring defense allowing 13 points per game. Purdue is third allowing 15.4, and that’s with playing Notre Dame, Minnesota, and a good Oregon State offense.
Iowa is third in the Big Ten in pass defense – Purdue is No. 1.
Wisconsin has the best defense by a mile in yards allowed, but Iowa is No. 2 Purdue is No. 3.
The Boilermakers and Hawkeyes are almost neck-and-neck in the time of possession battle, and
It comes down to turnovers. They killed Purdue late against Notre Dame – and killed those who had the Boilermakers and the points in the 27-13 loss – and it has two giveaways in each of the last three games and no takeaways.
Iowa will still win this, but after scoring 13 over the last three games, something like 24-13 Hawkeyes gets this done.
Big Time Big Ten Game No. 3 …