3. Florida State at NC State
LINE NC State -3.5
ATS PICK NC State
If I miss this that means I need to clear the cache, reboot the system, and try seeing things differently.
Without thinking about the spread – or guessing what it was actually going to be – I came away from the game preview thinking NC State would win by double-digits, but the spread is just 3.5.
I’m not saying I see something everyone else doesn’t – again, there’s some life tweaking that might need to be done – but I have three problems with this.
First, I have the unshakeable belief that if LSU had a warm-up Week 0 game, it beats Florida State in Week 1. Most of the mistakes in the 24-23 loss were opening day jitters and things that needed a live scrimmage to get past.
Second, the 31-21 FSU loss to Wake Forest last week was a problem mainly because the running game didn’t rock. It struggled to run against LSU, and that was almost a loss, It ran for a season-low 112 yards against the Demon Deacons, and lost.
NC State has hardly been perfect, but it’s stuffing the run and that includes keeping Clemson from going off last week in the 30-20 Tiger win.
And finally, NC State won’t turn the ball over enough to matter. Florida State came up with seven takeaways against LSU, Louisville, and Boston College, and none against Wake Forest.
As is you’d give away three from the home team. The extra hook is fine considering NC State will probably win the turnover battle, the running game will start working again, and the defense will be terrific.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Wisconsin at Northwestern