4. Air Force at Utah State
LINE Air Force -10.5
ATS PICK Air Force
I was all in thinking BYU was going to body-slam Utah State last Friday night.
It didn’t, it was a fight, and what should’ve been a blowout was a 38-26 Utah State loss. Maybe that means Utah State is getting stronger in the second month of the season. Maybe it showed that the defense is about to step up and give Air Force a run.
After all, the Falcons are 4-0 at home, and 0-1 on the lone trip away to Wyoming.
Nah.
Utah State has been solid against the run over the last few games, but Air Force has taken things to a whole other level. Am I concerned about the 13-10 win over Navy? Not really – option game recognizes option game.
Am I worried that Wyoming stuffed the offense in the 17-14 win? Not really – Air Force was missing a few parts and that was a weeknight game.
10.5 is a lot, though, to give away on the road, but 1) the Utah State 35-7 loss to Weber State was just a few weeks ago and it’s still ugly, 2) Air Force has a way of bouncing back after a weak performance with something great, and 3) turnovers.
Utah State is a turnover machine, giving it away 15 times this year with 13 of them coming in the last three games. It also doesn’t help that the D hasn’t generated a takeaway in the last two weeks.
Air Force isn’t forcing takeaways, but it also isn’t giving them up. There were two fumbles, but those were the only two giveaways over the last three weeks.
And then there’s the time of possession battle. Set the over/under on the time Air Force has the ball at about 39:50.