1. Troy at Appalachian State
LINE: Appalachian State -13.5
ATS PICK: Appalachian State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is going off of two gigantic assumptions.
First, Appalachian State is the third-best team in the Sun Belt, and it might even be second if it beats Louisiana next week. The Mountaineers lost in a good battle with Marshall and last week in a heartbreaker against Costa Carolina.
This hasn’t been the dominant force it was over previous seasons, but it’s still among the league’s most talented teams, the running game is still outstanding, and even after what happened against the Chanticleers, it’s still deep in the Sun Belt championship chase.
And the second assumption? Troy can’t beat good teams.
It started out 4-2 with what seemed to be a great win on the road at Arkansas State, but that’s not as strong now. It lost in a fight to Georgia State, it lost in a fight to Georgia Souther, and it lost in a fight to a bad Middle Tennessee in a rematch of the Trojan opener.
Troy hasn’t been blown out by anyone other than BYU, it has a great passing game, and it has the defense to keep this from getting out of hand.
This isn’t going to be easy to get the cover, but Appalachian State is at home, is has one of the best pass defenses in the country, and Troy really, really can’t run the ball.
The Trojans turn it over too much, they’re going to have to press, and they’re not efficient enough in the red zone.
Again, you’ll have to sweat it out, but being 13.5 and not 14.5 matters – Appalachian State takes this by two touchdowns at home.
Week 13 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 13 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 13 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 12 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
[protected-iframe id=”361699434b6d70baf15f631ed2408ac1-97672683-92922408″ info=”https://www.googletagservices.com/tag/js/gpt.js” ]