3. Arkansas State at Texas State
LINE: Arkansas State -6
ATS PICK: Arkansas State
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The line has gone up, and it’s possible to find this at around 4.5 at some places, but even at -6, Arkansas State is the right play for one specific reason: Texas State doesn’t win.
The worry is last week’s Bobcat game at Georgia Southern. The Eagles are terrific, the pass rush is solid, the running game is among the best in the country, and the team is great at being able to control everything about a game.
Texas State ran for 30 yards, failed to get to 300 yards of total offense, and it only lost by two.
The Bobcats were able to push Boston College to the wire – and lost. They got into a wild shootout and had a chance late for the win against UTSA – and lost. The hung around with Louisiana, battled hard against SMU, and weren’t bad for against Appalachian State. – and lost, lost, lost.
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The one Texas State win this season was over a ULM team that has yet to win a game.
Arkansas State hasn’t exactly been burning it up, losing three straight after a 3-2 start. It got dropkicked by 28 at home to Troy – Texas State only lost by 20 to the Trojans on the road – and now it’s on the last leg of a run of three road games in four dates.
If you can start by buying into the idea that Texas State isn’t going to win, then go from there.
The Arkansas State passing game has worked just fine even in losses, however, the team is 3-1 this year when throwing for 300 yards or more and 0-4 when it doesn’t.
Texas State has allowed over 300 yards five times, and when it didn’t, it was usually because teams like UTSA, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern were too busy running.
Oh, you’ll have to sweat it out – Texas State is going to battle – but you’re asking for a win by a touchdown against a 1-9 team.