The Chargers kick off their season this Sunday against the Raiders after an offseason makeover that included the addition of Khalil Mack, JC Jackson, and Sebastian Joseph-Day, among others.
How will the positional groups shape up? Here’s a bold prediction for each unit on defense.
Interior Defensive Line
LA finishes in the top ten in run defense DVOA
The last time the Chargers finished in the top ten in run defense DVOA was 2010 when the likes of Luis Castillo and Jacques Cesaire were patrolling the defensive line. For another idea of how long ago that was: Antonio Gates was in his eighth season out of an eventual sixteen in 2010. His son, Antonio Jr., is a true freshman wide receiver at Michigan State this season.
Last season, Los Angeles was 30th in run defense DVOA, somewhat generous considering how porous the line was. Brandon Staley emphasized improving the group this offseason, bringing in Joseph-Day, Austin Johnson, Morgan Fox, and draftee Otito Ogbonnia. Breiden Fehoko earned a roster spot over veteran Christian Covington. It’s a completely revamped group with familiarity with Staley’s defense. In 2020, when Staley served as Rams defensive coordinator, the team was third in run defense DVOA. The coaching is there, as are the players. All that’s left now is to set a precedent.
Edge defender
Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack have the most sacks of any duo in the NFL
The league is filled to the brim with outstanding pass rush duos. Even within the division, Chandler Jones has teamed up with Maxx Crosby on the Raiders. Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory are a high-upside duo in Denver. In Dallas, Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence are a formidable team. Then, of course, the Rams, Steelers, and 49ers all have at least one top-flight option as well.
Still, Bosa and Mack might be the best of them all. Bosa has logged ten or more sacks in four out of his six seasons as a pro – in the two he didn’t, he also missed at least four games apiece. Mack hasn’t had more than ten sacks in a season since 2018, but he’s looked like a new man since arriving in LA this offseason after four seasons in Chicago. 2018 was also the last season Mack spent with Staley as his outside linebackers coach. If both players stay healthy and produce to the levels they’re capable of, there’s no reason why they can’t lead the league in sacks.
Linebacker
Kenneth Murray emerges as an impact player
Murray is listed as a second-team linebacker behind Kyle Van Noy and Drue Tranquill as of Monday. Still, there are several reasons to feel optimistic about his projection this season. First, the Chargers only kept three edge rushers on the initial 53-man roster, suggesting that Van Noy will have a big role in that area. Murray will therefore have plenty of reps available to him next to Tranquill. Additionally, the former first-round pick’s struggles have at least partially stemmed from an inability to get off blocks. But with a much improved defensive line, Murray should stay mostly clean this season, giving him the freedom to harness his freak athleticism and make plays all over the field.
The former Oklahoma product has only been practicing for a few weeks after coming off the PUP list as he recovers from off-season ankle surgery. However, by giving Murray the time he needs to heal completely, the Chargers are also allowing him to regain confidence in his movement skills. That confidence will prevent hesitation and allow Murray to hit a playmaking stride.
Secondary
Michael Davis cements himself as CB2
Davis told reporters that distractions in his personal life prevented him from being at his best last season after signing a three-year, $25.2 million extension last offseason. With those distractions now resolved, Davis made a strong case for the starting job opposite JC Jackson in training camp. Davis and Asante Samuel Jr. will likely start on Sunday as Jackson recovers from ankle surgery, giving the Chargers a unique opportunity to continue their evaluation of both players. If he plays to the level he did in 2020, Davis will be at least solid on the boundary.