Having covered college basketball for several years and having followed the sport since I was a kid, I have had to learn the hard way to not pronounce a team an NCAA Tournament “lock” too prematurely.
I have made “LOCK” declarations in the middle of February, only to watch in horror and embarrassment as that “LOCK” team proceeded to lose six games in a row and tumble into the NIT.
The point about “LOCK” versus “likely in” is that an NCAA Tournament lock is not a lock unless that team can lose ALL of its remaining games and still make the Big Dance. A team might be highly unlikely to lose five games in a row, but if it DOES and it can fall out of the tournament, it’s obviously not a lock, right?
I cover tennis. I have seen players take a 5-0 lead in a set and not lose the set. The player isn’t a lock to win the set at 5-0. Highly likely? Of course… but that sixth and final game needs to be won first. So it is with Wisconsin. The Badgers could still go on a huge losing streak, including Northwestern at home. If UW loses every remaining game, it could still fall out of the NCAA Tournament. I am not ready to use the L-word just yet.
However… with all of that having been said:
It is getting close to Locksville for Wisconsin.
The Badgers are stacking together wins, not losses. They are moving upward while the rest of the bubble goes down or stagnates, with few exceptions. Wisconsin needed to avoid a four-game losing streak… and not only is it doing that, it is building a four-game winning streak after handling Rutgers on Sunday in the Kohl Center.
If Wisconsin does lose its next four regular-season games, followed by its first game at the Big Ten Tournament, yeah, it might still have to sweat out Selection Sunday… but I think with one more win, a lock is a reasonable call to make. Two more wins, and a lock is absolutely certain.
Locksville, USA. Wisconsin hasn’t completed the journey, but it is almost there, and the car has plenty of fuel in the tank.