Why James Harden could have a real chance to average 40 points

Rockets star James Harden is averaging 39.5 points through 13 games, and a closer look at the data suggests his scoring may get even better.

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Through 13 games of the 2019-20 season, Rockets star James Harden is averaging 39.5 points per game, including an astounding 43.0 points during Houston’s current seven-game winning streak.

Over the weekend, NBA legend and future Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade said he wants to see Harden average 40 for the season.

On paper, it sounds almost impossible. After all, the only player in NBA history to average 40+ points in a season was Wilt Chamberlain, and it came nearly 60 years ago in the 1961-62 and 1962-63 seasons. But upon looking at the numbers, Harden might have a real chance.

A year ago, Harden averaged 36.1 with the Rockets averaging 98.4 possessions per game — which was the NBA’s fourth-slowest pace. This year, after the offseason addition of Russell Westbrook, Houston is at the league’s third-highest pace at 106.00 possessions as of Monday — which represents a big increase in scoring opportunities.

Additionally, Harden’s current 39.5-point average comes on shooting percentages of 41.7% from the field and 33.2% from three-point range are the lowest of his eight seasons in Houston. If those revert closer to his career norms in Houston of 44.2% overall and 36.3% on three-pointers, that should lead to even more points.

In fact, we’ve already seen that dynamic start to play out. Harden’s subpar percentages largely reflect a shooting slump to begin the season, with Harden at 37.1% from the field and 21.5% on three-pointers through Houston’s first six games (3-3).

During the current seven-game winning streak, his percentages have jumped substantially to 44.9% overall and 41.4% on three-pointers.

In the latest episode of the Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective podcast, ESPN‘s Kevin Pelton and Kevin Arnovitz explained why a closer look at the numbers suggests that Harden could pull it off.

“He can,” said Pelton, when asked by Windhorst whether Harden could average 40 points. “I’m not sure I would bet on it. Now I would bet on him having the highest-scoring season since Chamberlain and beating out that Jordan season [37.1 points in 1986-87].”

“When you look at his stats, it’s not a lot of small sample size theater at all, really. The biggest difference from last season, and the reason for his scoring increase… he’s playing the same number of minutes per game, he’s scoring pretty much the identical number of points per 100 possessions, it’s up from 48.2 to 48.5.”

Pelton continued:

The difference is almost entirely that Houston has gone from one of the slowest-paced teams in the league to the fourth-fastest pace [now third]. That’s something that tends to stabilize at the team level pretty quickly. The stylistic markers of how you play tend to stabilize more quickly than the results, the outcome-based things. I think pace will come down over the course of the season, we do traditionally see that, but we’re probably going to see Harden shoot better on threes than he has this year, where he’s at 33% so far, which would be the lowest mark of his NBA career. So, I don’t think we’re going to see a big decline in his points per game.

Arnovitz then jumped in:

To follow Kevin’s point, what’s really interesting here is generally speaking, one of the features of small sample size theater in November is when Brian asks the question of, ‘Hey, can this guy keep it up?’ it’s because they’ve been overperforming, or gotten a little lucky, or been way outside from a positive outlier standpoint. But, that’s the thing. He’s not even shooting all that well! Imagine if he becomes a little more proficient per possession. … You know, Aron Baynes is not going to continue to shoot 50% from three. With Harden, he hasn’t even been that proficient. That’s what’s crazy about it.

Arnovitz did note that Eric Gordon‘s downtown in efficiency and current six-week absence due to knee surgery is giving Harden additional opportunities. In theory, that could reduce Harden’s usage rate slightly in the second half of the season, assuming Gordon returns healthy around Christmas, as planned.

But for now, as long as Harden stays healthy, there’s little in the data to suggest a probable regression in his scoring. And with the Rockets (10-3) having won seven consecutive games and the team’s defense faring extremely well with Harden on the court, there’s little reason for head coach Mike D’Antoni to consider tinkering with the formula.

After all, it’s not as if Harden’s exceptional offensive workload is limiting his proficiency on the defensive end. Moreover, the performance is strongly correlated with wins for his team, including three victories in four days to end last week — all against opponents with winning records (Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves).

Harden will have his next opportunity to build on the historic numbers during a home matchup versus Portland (5-8) on Monday, when the Rockets will attempt to win their eighth straight game.

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