Boxing Junkie staffers are trying to have some fun while the sport is on hiatus because of the coronavirus pandemic.
One of the questions fans love to ask even amid a busy schedule is, “Who would win if …?” With that in mind, we decided to create our own “Who Wins?” feature, in which we pit a single fighter against each of five potential opponents and indicate who we believe would win the fights.
We started the series with our No. 1 boxer pound-for-pound, Vasiliy Lomachenko, and moved down the list to No. 2 Terence Crawford, No. 3 Canelo Alvarez, No. 4 Naoya Inoue, No. 5 Oleksandr Usyk and No. 6 Gennady Golovkin, No. 7 Errol Spence Jr. and No. 8 Tyson Fury.
No. 9 Juan Francisco Estrada is next up.
In this installment of Who Wins?, our staffers’ give their takes on how Estrada would do against Roman Gonzalez, Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, Naoya Inoue, Kazuto Ioka and Kosei Tanaka. We then tally Estrada’s record in those fights and present our standings.
Estrada, a two-division champions, has won four consecutive fights since he lost a majority decision to Sor Rungvisai in 2018. That includes a unanimous-decision victory over Sor Rungvisai in a rematch to win a junior bantamweight title.
We want to acknowledge that the choice of possible opponents is subjective. We’re looking for the best possible but also realistic foes for our featured boxers. One caveat: We won’t consider promotional and managerial rivalries that often stand in the way of the best matchups. And we’re operating under the assumption that none of our featured boxers will fight with ring rust as result of their forced coronavirus-related layoff.
The plan is to work our way down our pound-for-pound list each day. That means our featured fighter tomorrow will be No. 10 Mikey Garcia.
So here goes: Estrada vs. his five potential opponents.
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ESTRADA (40-3, 27 KOs) VS. GONZALEZ (49-2, 41 KOs)
Rosenthal: Gonzalez resurrected his career as an elite fighter by stopping Kal Yafai on Feb. 29, demonstrating to those who had written him off that he has some fight left in him. The problem for Gonzalez is Estrada is much better than Yafai. The Mexican is a superb, resilient boxer who gave Gonzalez hell in their 2012 meeting. This time, the aging Gonzalez will be taken to hell. Estrada by late knockout.
Frauenheim: A rematch has long been on the horizon. Gonzalez won the first one, wining a unanimous decision nearly eight years ago at 108 pounds. A move up the scale to junior bantamweight and possibly bantamweight favors Estrada. Gonzalez was at his best at 112. Estrada, unanimous decision.
Nam: There’s some wind in Gonzalez’s sails after he dominated Kal Yafai last month. Still, the fact is Gonzalez is no longer in his prime and Yafai was something of a fraud, a paper titleholder who fought no one of note during his title reign. Gonzalez won’t be able to pick apart Estrada in the same way. Consider that Estrada gave Gonzalez a pretty spirited fight in 2012. Estrada lost, but he only improved since then. You have to give it to the fresher fighter. Estrada on points.
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ESTRADA VS. SOR RUNGVISAI (47-5-1, 41 KOs)
Rosenthal: A third fight between these two warriors is a no-brainer. Estrada rallied in the first fight to make it close but came up short. Sor Rungvisai, who inexplicably fought mostly from an orthodox stance, did the same in a losing cause in the rematch. Part III? Estrada, 29, has the more-recent victory and momentum while Sor Rungvisai, 33, might have leveled off. Estrada by a close, but clear decision.
Frauenheim: Estrada lost a majority decision to Rungvisai, then beat him by unanimous decision14 months later, both at 115. Estrada learned enough in the first fight to make the right adjustments. In the rematch, he figures to have learned even more. Estrada, unanimous decision.
Nam: Although Sor Rungivsai committed a grave tactical error in their rematch – the decision to go orthodox instead of his natural southpaw stance for more than three quarters of the bout – he ended up giving Estrada a run for his money the last few rounds. The third fight is closer if Sor Rungvisai relies on his natural instincts. Estrada will come out much the same, firing on all cylinders. But the Thai fighter has one of the better chins in the game and eventually he’ll wear out Estrada. Sor Rungvisai by close decision.
ESTRADA VS. INOUE (19-0, 16 KOs)
Rosenthal: Estrada is a complete fighter, meaning he’s a handful for anyone. He’ll outbox you, he’ll hurt you and he’ll almost certainly beat you. He’s a 115-pounder, though. He has fought above that weight but not against an elite opponent like Inoue. The guess here is that he’d be at too much of a physical disadvantage against Inoue, who would have trouble in the first half of the fight but slowly break Estrada down and win a clear decision.
Frauenheim: Estrada is a classic boxer-puncher, solid in every way. But he was vulnerable to a busy style, which was what Gonzalez used to beat him by decision. Inoue varies the angles and the rate of his combinations, all done to set up his signature punch — a left hook to the body. Inoue, unanimous decision.
Nam: The most skilled fighter here. He also has an underrated chin, as evidenced in his fights against a prime Roman Gonzalez and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai (twice). Not sure it holds up here against Inoue at 118. It’s a competitive bout for most of the fight, but Inoue’s power will take over late, eventually earning him a stoppage.
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ESTRADA VS. IOKA (25-2, 14 KOs)
Rosenthal: Ioka is an excellent all-around fighter and, at 31, has plenty of experience at the elite level. That includes his recent setback against Donnie Nietes, which most observers seem to believe he did enough to win. However, he hasn’t seen someone quite like Estrada, who can match Ioka’s boxing skills and has more power. Estrada by a clear decision.
Frauenheim: Ioka has some power along with foot and hand speed. His also might possess resiliency he’ll need to beat Estrada. He’s 2-0 since losing a debatable split-decision to Donnie Nietes. It’s a close fight, perhaps determined by location, location, location. In Mexico, Estrada wins. In Japan, Ioka wins. At a neutral site, it’s a draw.
Nam: It’s hard to know exactly where exactly Ioka, 31, is in his career. Promotional issues have contributed to some inactivity over the past few years. Moreover, the skilled boxer-puncher has never proven himself against truly elite opposition. That said, he did deserve to win against Donnie Nietes in 2018. Estrada is a bit too talented, too dynamic. Expect Ioka to start fast but for Estrada to catch up before beating the brakes of off Ioka to win a unanimous decision.
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ESTRADA VS. TANAKA (15-0, 9 KOs)
Rosenthal: Tanaka, only 24, is a gifted, dynamic young fighter on the rise. He could be a major player for another decade. That said, this is Estrada’s time. His skill set and experience will be too much for Tanaka at this stage of the game. It will be close for a few rounds and then Estrada will pull away. Estrada by decision.
Frauenheim: Tanaka looks to be an emerging star. He’s 24. He has nine KOs on his 15-0 resume. He won a world title in only his fifth pro bout. He also faces a mandatory challenge for a 112-pound belt from Ioka. He has all of the momentum, enough leverage to keep a bout vs. Estrada in Japan. Tanaka, unanimous decision.
Nam: A potential barnburner. Tanaka, a three-division titleholder at only 24 years of age, has no qualms about mixing it up on the inside. See his terrific tete-a-tete against Sho Kimura in 2018. Not sure how much firepower he has to truly gain Estrada’s respect on the inside. His experience, moreover, is also a concern. Estrada wins a clear decision.
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THE FINAL TALLY
Juan Francisco Estrada: 9-5-1 (1 KOs)
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THE STANDINGS
Canelo Alvarez: 15-0 (6 KOs)
Naoya Inoue: 14-0-1 (5 KOs)
Vassiliy Lomachenko: 14-0-1 (4 KOs)
Tyson Fury: 14-1 (8 KOs)
Terence Crawford: 14-1 (3 KOs)
Errol Spence Jr.: 13-2 (6 KOs)
Oleksandr Usyk: 10-5 (2 KOs)
Juan Francisco Estrada: 9-5-1 (1 KOs)
Gennadiy Golovkin: 9-6 (5 KOs)
Read more:
Who wins? Vassiliy Lomachenko vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Terence Crawford vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Canelo Alvarez vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Naoya Inoue vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Oleksandr Usyk vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Gennadiy Golovkin vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Errol Spence Jr. vs. five potential opponents