The Washington Nationals (36-38) play the Miami Marlins (33-43) Sunday in their four-game series finale at loanDepot park. Game 4’s first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Washington hopes to salvage a series split since Miami has won back-to-back games by a combined score of 14-4 after the Nationals won the series opener.
Season series: Nationals lead 4-2.
RHP Max Scherzer makes his 15th start for the Nationals. Scherzer is 6-4 with a 2.19 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 0.83 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 8 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday.
- Scherzer got a win earlier this season vs. the Marlins (May 2) with a stat line of 9 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Washington’s 3-1 victory.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 166 at-bats with a .205/.250/.337 slash line, 52/7 K/BB, 5 HR and 13 RBIs.
RHP Sandy Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins. Alcantara is 4-6 with a 2.93 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 across an MLB-high 16 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Miami’s 2-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 79 at-bats with a .253/.344/.418 slash line, 17/10 K/BB, 3 HR and 10 RBIs.
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Nationals at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Nationals 5, Marlins 0
Money line (ML)
GIMME the NATIONALS (-140) for 1 unit because Scherzer dominates the Marlins historically and pitches very well in Miami.
Scherzer is 14-5 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP against the Marlins for his career and is 7-4 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in Miami’s home ballpark.
Furthermore, Scherzer’s advanced pitching numbers vs. this Miami lineup are dramatically better than Alcantara’s against current Washington batters.
Scherzer has a 2.19 FIP, .250 expected wOBA, .207 expected batting average, .320 expected slugging percentage and 31.9% strikeout rate against active Marlins hitters (141 plate appearances).
On the other side, Alcantara has a 5.11 FIP, .365 expected wOBA, .255 expected batting average, .521 expected slugging percentage and 20.8% strikeout rate vs. current Nationals batters (77 plate appearances).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since the Marlins +1.5 (-160) have one of the best run line records vs. divisional foes in the majors (16-9 ATS) while the Nationals -1.5 (+135) have one of the worst (13-18 ATS).
Also, Washington is only 3-7 ATS this year as a road favorite and Miami is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 6.5 (-115) for a half unit because nearly all of the early action on the total is on the Over (according to Pregame.com), so we have a “contrarian play.”
Moreover, these teams have an 8-20 O/U record when these starters are on the mound, the Nationals are 13-19-3 O/U on the road and the Marlins are 15-18-2 O/U at home.
Plus, the Under has cashed in six straight Scherzer starts and the Under is 3-0-1 in Alcantara’s last four home starts.
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