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The Miami Dolphins are going to want to make sure that they send the Cincinnati Bengals a belated holiday card this week. Because after some ill will and bad blood appeared to spill out earlier this month when these two teams met, the Cincinnati Bengals gave the Dolphins one of the greatest gifts this holiday season — an upset win over Houston in Week 16 to push the Miami Dolphins’ first scheduled draft choice higher in the 2021 NFL Draft order.
With one week left to play, the Dolphins pick from Houston is currently the No. 3 overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, positioning them to draft an elite talent or subsequently trade out and collection another treasure trove of picks courtesy of a trade down as a QB hungry team tries to make some noise.
But there’s still one week left to play — and here are the possibilities for the pick.
The Ceiling
We teased the possibility of this pick landing in the top three last week with the following criteria:
- A Bengals win over Houston in Week 16
- A Texans loss in Week 17 to Tennessee
- A Carolina win over the final two weeks (@ Washington and vs. New Orleans)
- A Falcons win over the final two weeks (@ Kansas City and @ Tampa Bay)
But it turns out that the strength of schedule tiebreaker between Houston and Atlanta flipped in Houston’s favor in Week 16, so Miami already has the lead position based on draft order tiebreakers. That margin is razor thin, however — and league outcomes aside of just the Houston game next weekend could influence if it stays against the ceiling. But this pick will be no higher than 3rd when it is all said and done.
The Floor
Good news, Miami! When we conducted this exercise last week, the floor for this draft choice was a top-15 overall selection. That’s been whittled down to a top-10 overall selection now thanks to Houston’s latest loss to Cincinnati. We looked at all the potential teams that can pass Houston in the order based on wins and losses and when forecasting a Houston win against the Titans next Sunday with losses elsewhere across the board, the Texans’ pick checked in at No. 9 overall courtesy of PlayoffPredictors.com.
Miami will have a top-10 pick as part of their return for Laremy Tunsil.
Expected Outcome
The Texans have a tough draw next weekend — they face the Tennessee Titans, who are 10-5 and playing for a division title amid their race with the Indianapolis Colts. There’s plenty to lose and after giving up 40 in the snow to Green Bay, the Titans are likely out for blood. They’ll catch Houston off a demoralizing defeat to the Bengals and we expect a Titans win as a result. And with that loss in hand, the Texans will not only secure Miami a pick in the top-10, it will finish as high as mathematically possible:
Number 3 overall.