In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 209 at Accor Arena in Paris, France. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 209 Gane vs. Tuivasa odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The fight can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims beginning at noon ET and the main card at 3 p.m. ET.
Gane, a.k.a. “Bon Gamin”, will fight in front of his countrymen in France for the first time at the UFC level. He is looking to rebound from a unanimous-decision loss at Francis Ngannou for the heavyweight belt at UFC 270 in January. That loss was in his first defense of the belt after taking the strap from Derrick Lewis via KO/TKO at UFC 265 in Aug. 2021.
Gane takes the walk to the octagon with a slight edge in significant strikes landed per minute at 4.83-to-4.54. He also stands 2 inches taller and holds a 6-inch reach advantage.
Tuivasa lost 3 fights from Dec. 2018 to Oct. 2019, but he has bounced back with 5 consecutive KO/TKO wins, including a 2nd-round KO of Derrick Lewis last time out at UFC 271 in February.
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UFC Fight Night 209 Gane vs. Tuivasa odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Gane -600 (bet $600 to win $100) | Tuivasa +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -145 | Under +105)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -260)
[tipico]
UFC Fight Night 209 Gane vs. Tuivasa picks and predictions
Records: Gane (10-1-0) | Tuivasa (15-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Gane (-600) will fight with a little extra incentive in his homeland, and he will be feeding off the pro-Frenchmen crowd. Still, risking 6 times your potential return isn’t a recommended betting strategy. Let’s get a little more specific.
Gane has gone the distance in 3 of his last 4 fights and registered a pair of KO/TKO wins in the last 5 outings. He holds that huge reach advantage, so he’ll be able to keep Tuivasa at a distance, picking and choosing his spots. Gane is a great technical fighter, and he will be looking to wow the judges. Play GANE BY POINTS (+245) for the method of victory.
Over/Under (O/U)
Tuivasa has not ended up going very deep into fights lately, but Lewis and Augusto Sakai made him at least go into the 2nd round. With Gane, Tuivasa won’t be able to get next to him, as the Frenchman keeps him at a distance with that huge reach advantage. That will knock Tuivasa off his game a bit, and he won’t be able to get the finish.
YES (+180): FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE is a very attractive play in this main event.
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